Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-26 10:59Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply - side production fluctuates normally due to maintenance, and the chlor - alkali profit remains above 300. Non - aluminum demand is the main rigid demand, and the pre - holiday restocking is less than expected. The future market depends on the spot price rhythm, the prosperity of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 22.00%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 39.1% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2800) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - Procurement Management: - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2500 - 2550 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH601P2480) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 70 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Market Data - Caustic Soda Futures Contracts: - On September 26, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.26%; the 01 contract was 2528 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.35% [3]. - The month - spread (5 - 9) was - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the month - spread (9 - 1) was 133 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the month - spread (1 - 5) was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 217 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 09 contract basis was - 255 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 01 contract basis was - 122 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - Caustic Soda Factory Prices: - The ex - factory prices of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda from various brands in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [4][6]. - Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices: - The market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. - Price Spreads: - The price spreads between different grades and regions of caustic soda on September 26, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [7]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures month - spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 and 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [8][9].