Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-26 11:20Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New grain seasonal supply is abundant, putting pressure on spot prices later; soybean No. 1 futures are supported by short - covering, leading to a second - day rebound; the resumption of auctions increases market supply pressure, and attention should be paid to transaction volume [4]. - There are potential policy support and short - covering factors that are favorable, while the resumption of auctions is a negative factor [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction - The price range prediction for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies - Inventory Management for Sellers: For those with long spot positions such as planting entities with high autumn harvest selling needs and facing short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean No. 1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is in the range of 4000 - 4050; also, sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio when the option price is in the range of 30 - 50 to increase the selling price [3]. - Procurement Management for Buyers: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term, focus on forward procurement management, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter, with long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - Core Contradictions: New grain supply is seasonally abundant, pressuring spot prices; futures are supported by short - covering; the resumption of auctions intensifies supply pressure [4]. - Likely Positive Factors: On September 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on increasing the large - scale yield per unit of grain and oil crops and "Three Autumn" production, which may lead to relevant policies; the short - side of the 11 - contract continued to reduce positions significantly, supporting the futures price to rebound continuously; the acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the first half of 2025 provided phased support to the market [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: On September 26, 2025, the e - commerce platform of Sinograin organized a domestic soybean auction with a sales volume of 19349 tons, and Liangda.com planned two auctions on the same day, increasing the pressure on the spot market [4]. 3.4 Price Changes - From September 24 to September 25, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) all increased, with daily increases ranging from 0.38% to 0.56% [4][6].