Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-27 07:34Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products increased compared to the previous week, and the inventory changed from an increase to a decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased week-on-week, while that for hot-rolled coils decreased. Seasonally, the week-on-week rebound of rebar demand is in line with expectations and is likely the high or second-high point for the second half of the year, but the current demand remains weak, suggesting limited improvement in the future. The inventory shows a pattern of "decreasing rebar and increasing hot-rolled coils," and all products are in a state of super-seasonal inventory accumulation. High supply exerts pressure on the market, but high molten iron production and pre-holiday raw material restocking support costs. However, post-holiday restocking may weaken, and continuous super-seasonal inventory accumulation could lead to negative feedback and production cuts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The predicted monthly range for the 01 contract of rebar is 3000 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.63% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot-rolled coils, the range is 3200 - 3500, with a volatility of 11.11% and a percentile of 9.72% [2]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For high finished product inventory, sell rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2501 at 3150 - 3200 and 30% for HC2501 at 3350 - 3400) to lock in profits. Also, sell call options (20% for RB2601C3400 at 35 - 45) to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [2]. - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2601 and HC2601 at 3050 - 3100 and 3250 - 3300) to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (20% for RB2601P3000 at 50 - 60) to collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Market Data - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 26, 2025, rebar futures prices decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract closing at 3114 (-53). Spot prices also declined, e.g., the national average was 3288 (-18). Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices also fell, with the 01 contract closing at 3313 (-45) and the Shanghai spot price at 3370 (-30) [7]. - Overseas Data: Hot-rolled coil FOB export prices in China, Japan, India, etc., decreased slightly week-on-week. CFR import prices in some regions also declined [8]. - Spreads: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread was -57 (+1), and the hot-rolled coil 10 - 01 month spread was 82 (+20). The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Shanghai was 130 (-30) [8]. - Ratios: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 3.93 (+0.0136), and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 1.84 (+0.04) [9]. - Seasonal Data: Various seasonal charts are provided, including rebar and hot-rolled coil basis, month spreads, and profit margins [10][11][12].