Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-27 11:35Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the operating rate of coking coal mines has been continuously rising, and Mongolian coal has been actively cleared through customs, resulting in a strong supply of coking coal. As pre - holiday restocking nears its end, there is a risk of marginal deterioration in the coking coal inventory structure after the holiday, and it is expected that the difficulty of holding up spot prices will gradually increase. The price increase of coke has officially started and is expected to be officially implemented during or after the National Day. At that time, the immediate coking profit is expected to improve slightly, and the probability of large - scale production cuts by coking enterprises in the short term is not high. Blast furnace steel mills are actively increasing production, with molten iron output remaining above 2.4 million tons, indicating strong demand for coke, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand of coke. In the short term, the coking coal futures may face downward pressure, and the coke market will follow the trend of coking coal. In the long - term, "anti - involution" is the trading theme for the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment fluctuations and mine over - production inspections on the coking coal and coke market. Market participants' expectations for the future are gradually improving, and their willingness to hold goods has also increased compared with the first half of the year. It is maintained that coking coal and coke are not considered as short - side allocations in the black - metal sector, and the main coking coal futures are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern. A breakthrough above the previous high requires the introduction of substantial favorable policies or an unexpected decline in the mine operating rate. Subsequent attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal demand after the National Day, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee in late October, and the proposal of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Proximal Trading Logic: The number of available days of coking coal inventory for downstream coking enterprises is higher than the seasonal average, and the restocking logic has temporarily ended. After the holiday, upstream mines will face greater inventory pressure, and it is expected that the difficulty of holding up spot prices will increase. As the "Silver October" peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal demand after the holiday. In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a non - prosperous peak season, and there is still pressure in the real - world steel market [4]. - Distal Trading Expectations: "Anti - involution" is the key trading focus for the second half of the year, and macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee in October and the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. The loose liquidity supports the overall valuation of commodities [12]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: The coking coal and coke futures are expected to oscillate within a range. The JM2601 coking coal futures are expected to trade between 1100 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the J2601 coke futures are expected to trade between 1600 - 1850 yuan/ton. - Strategy Recommendations: Short the coking profit on the futures market when the price is high, with the recommended entry range for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio being (1.5 - 1.55); conduct a reverse spread trade for coking coal 1 - 5, with the recommended entry range being (- 70, - 60); go long on the coking coal 2605 contract when the price is low, with the recommended entry range being (1200, 1250) [13]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: Recently, the basis of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the port has strengthened slightly, and the coke basis has oscillated at a low level. There is no definite opportunity for positive cash - futures arbitrage. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread trade for coking coal 1 - 5. The reasons for going long on the far - month contract are: the 01 contract has industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure, while the short - side force in the far - month 05 contract is weak; the 01 contract has position - limit constraints, while the far - month contract has fewer restrictions; the Dalian Commodity Exchange has expanded the number of delivery warehouses and delivery capacity, which is beneficial for short - side delivery, and the near - month coking coal contract is restricted. Short the coking profit on the futures market when the price is high, with the recommended entry range for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio being (1.5 - 1.55) [14]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1100 - 1350 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 38.64% and a historical percentile of 76.02%. The monthly price range forecast for coke is 1600 - 1850 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 32.23% and a historical percentile of 69.14%. - Risk Management Strategy Recommendations: For inventory hedging, coking enterprises worried about future price declines can short the J2601 coke contract, with a recommended hedging ratio of 25% at the entry range of (1780, 1830) and 50% at the entry range of (1830 - 1880). For procurement management, coking plants worried about future price increases can go long on the JM2605 coking coal contract, with a recommended hedging ratio of 50% at the entry range of (1150, 1200) and 25% at the entry range of (1200, 1250) [15]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Data: The operating rate and daily output of coking coal mines and coal - washing plants have increased. The inventory of coking coal in some mines has decreased, while the inventory of coking coal in coking enterprises and some ports has increased. The operating rate and daily output of coking enterprises and steel mills' coking departments have decreased slightly. The inventory of coke in coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of coke in steel mills and some ports has increased [16][18]. - Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices: The prices of most coking coal and coke products have increased compared with the previous week. The immediate coking profit has decreased, while the import profit of some coking coal has increased [19]. - Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices: The coking coal and coke futures prices have fluctuated. The basis of some coking coal has strengthened, and the calendar spreads of coking coal and coke have changed. The coking profit on the futures market has fluctuated at a low level, and the ratios of main contracts have changed slightly [20][21]. - Black - Metal Warehouse - Receipt Report: The warehouse - receipt quantities of some black - metal products have changed, with the warehouse - receipt quantity of coking coal decreasing and the warehouse - receipt quantity of coke increasing [22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting an average annual growth target of about 4% for the added value of the steel industry in the next two years. Some regions have entered the winter heating season. Yunnan steel enterprises have taken substantial steps in "anti - involution". The coke price in Xingtai market is planned to increase. Import Mongolian coal ports will be closed during the National Day holiday and resume normal clearance on October 8 [23]. - Negative Information: Affected by a typhoon, a major steel trading hub in Guangdong was closed for management. The US President announced a new round of high - tariff measures on multiple imported products starting from October 1 [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - September 30: Pay attention to China's official manufacturing PMI for September. - October 1: Pay attention to the US ADP employment number and ISM manufacturing PMI for September. - October 2: Pay attention to the US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 27. - October 3: Pay attention to the US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for September [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: The recent rebound of the main coking coal contract JM2601 failed to break through the key resistance level, and the price fell back after encountering resistance. Currently, it is still operating within a wide - range oscillatory range of 1100 - 1350 yuan/ton. As the pre - holiday restocking market temporarily ends, market trading has become lighter, and the upward momentum on the futures market has shown a marginal weakening trend. It is expected to continue the range - oscillatory pattern in the short term [24]. - Fund Trends: The net short positions of key profitable seats in the coking coal market have fluctuated slightly, indicating that short - side funds have different views on the future market, and the coking coal market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. The profitable seats in the coke market have changed from net long to net short, suggesting that the market's confidence in the coke fundamentals has weakened, and the bearish sentiment is gradually dominant [26]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The coking coal and coke markets generally show a deep - contango structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal has strengthened slightly, while the 1 - 5 calendar spread of coke has fluctuated little [31]. - Basis Structure: Recently, the basis of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the port has strengthened slightly, and the coke basis has oscillated at a low level [38]. - Spread Structure: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. It is recommended to maintain the idea of shorting the coking profit on the futures market when the price is high [43]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Recently, with the start of pre - holiday restocking, the cost of coking coal for the blast furnace has increased, and the immediate coking profit has shrunk rapidly. The profit of blast furnaces has improved slightly, and steel mills are more motivated to increase production. Mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a round of price increases, which are expected to be implemented during the National Day, and the immediate coking profit is expected to expand slightly [45]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - In the first half of the year, due to the long - term decline in domestic coal prices, the import profit of Mongolian coal shrank, and the import volume decreased significantly year - on - year. Since June, the average increase in coking coal spot prices has exceeded 300 yuan/ton, the import profit of Mongolian coal under long - term contracts has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance at ports has increased significantly. This week, the average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at ports has exceeded 1200, higher than the same period in previous years, and the proportion of Mongolian coal imports is expected to continue to increase. The import profit of seaborne coal is a synchronous indicator of coal shipping volume, and coal shipping volume is a leading indicator of coking coal import volume. It is estimated that there will be some pressure on the arrival of coking coal at ports in the future [49][55]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Limited by over - production inspections and safety supervision pressure, the production - increase space for coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be relatively limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in October will be 9.9 - 9.95 million tons. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm for customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased significantly, and the shipping volume of seaborne coal has also shown an increasing trend due to the recovery of import profit. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in October will be 9.8 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.21 million tons. Recently, the profit per ton of coke has shrunk rapidly, suppressing the enthusiasm for coke production increase. It is estimated that the weekly coke output in October will be maintained at 7.85 - 7.9 million tons [72]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - This week, the molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month, the profit in the blast - furnace segment has improved slightly, and high molten - iron output is expected to be maintained. Based on maintenance data, it is estimated that the average daily molten iron output next week will be 2.42 million tons, basically the same as this week [78]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For coking coal, the operating rate of domestic mines has continued to increase this week. The immediate supply - demand balance of coking coal corresponds to 2.4184 million tons of molten iron. Downstream steel mills are actively resuming production, and there is some resilience in blast - furnace molten iron in the short term. The coking coal market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. For coke, the immediate coking profit has shrunk, the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the immediate supply - demand balance of coke corresponds to 2.4075 million tons of molten iron. There is no obvious static supply - demand contradiction. After the pre - National Day downstream restocking logic ends, there is a possibility of marginal deterioration in the coking coal inventory structure after the holiday, and it will be more difficult to hold up spot prices. The immediate coking profit is expected to expand slightly, and it is expected that the operating rate of coking enterprises will remain stable in the short term. Blast - furnace production is highly stable, and the molten iron output has increased steadily in the past two weeks. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the coke market. It is expected that the spot price will be in a dilemma after the first - round price increase is implemented [80].