Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Guoxin Securities·2025-09-28 06:05Group 1 - The report highlights a transition from a "loose monetary + tight credit" environment to a "loose monetary + marginal credit recovery" scenario, indicating a positive outlook for the economy and equity markets in the next 1-3 quarters [1][12] - The A-share market is showing a positive trend driven by liquidity release and policy support, with significant performances from the Growth and ChiNext indices [2] - The bond market is expected to regain its allocation value due to deflationary pressures and declining interest rates, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment [3][12] Group 2 - The report suggests a focus on large-cap growth stocks due to the current economic recovery and favorable conditions for larger enterprises amid external uncertainties [17][19] - The domestic asset allocation model recommends aggressive positioning in stocks (50%), bonds (25%), oil (8.3%), and gold (16.7%) under an optimistic scenario, while a conservative scenario suggests 15% in stocks and 85% in bonds [22][23] - The report indicates that the performance of domestic assets in August was led by growth stocks, with significant returns compared to other sectors [27][34] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and policy directions as the market operates in a relatively high position, suggesting a stable upward trend [2] - The report provides a global asset allocation model, indicating specific allocation percentages for major global markets, with a notable emphasis on emerging markets like India and Vietnam [22][23] - The report notes that the stock-bond valuation ratio in China has been declining, suggesting a shift in investment attractiveness between these asset classes [40][43]