Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-28 09:40Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for live pigs showed weak performance this week (9.22 - 9.28). The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped to 24.55 yuan/kg from 25.35 yuan/kg last week, and the live pig price in Henan decreased to 12.58 yuan/kg from 12.93 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows remained at 1590 yuan/head. The supply was still abundant with slow group -出栏 progress and increasing retail -出栏 willingness, while the slaughter volume rose due to double stimulation of pre - holiday stocking and cooling [2]. - The futures market for live pigs also showed weak performance. The LH2511 contract of live pig futures had a high of 12920 yuan/ton, a low of 12570 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 12575 yuan/ton (compared to 12825 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 5 yuan/ton (compared to 105 yuan/ton last week) [2]. - Looking ahead (9.29 - 10.8), the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly. The supply is in an incremental stage, and there is a large supply pressure in September. The market is in a passive inventory accumulation stage instead of an active de - stocking stage, and it will take a long time to digest the inventory. The demand increased seasonally in September but will enter a slack season in October. The probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals is increasing, and the spot price is still in the process of finding the bottom [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2511 contract is facing a situation of high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. The contract's position reached a record high, and the pre - holiday stocking expectation was lower than expected. After the holidays, panic de - stocking may start, and attention should be paid to the basis - convergence market. The price of piglets is expected to continue to decline, and short positions in the May contract can be held with stop - loss and take - profit in mind. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 11500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (9.22 - 9.28) - Spot Market: The prices of live pigs and piglets decreased, while the price of binary sows remained stable. The supply was abundant, and the slaughter volume increased [2]. - Futures Market: The LH2511 contract of live pig futures showed a downward trend, and the basis decreased [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (9.29 - 10.8) - Spot Market: The spot price is expected to be weak. Supply pressure is high, and inventory digestion will take time. The probability of a weak peak season is increasing [3]. - Futures Market: The LH2511 contract is facing challenges, and attention should be paid to the basis - convergence market. Short positions in the May contract can be considered [4]. 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Spread: The basis this week was 5 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 spread was - 525 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: The average slaughter weight this week was 124.66KG (compared to 124.72KG last week). In July, pork production was 501.1 million tons, a 5.4% month - on - month decrease, and in August, pork imports were 8.17 million tons, a 7.46% month - on - month decrease [12].