南华期货2025年国债四季度展望：等待政策重心的回摆时刻

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Risk assets and regulatory disturbances were the main reasons for the multiple declines in the bond market in the third quarter, indicating that the core drivers of fundamentals and liquidity remained unchanged, and there was no risk of a cyclical reversal from the underlying framework of the bond market [1][16]. - Most of the negative disturbances in the third quarter were unrelated to the fundamentals and liquidity levels and were fully reflected in the current pricing, so there was no reason to be pessimistic about the fourth quarter. The central bank provided consistent support in terms of liquidity throughout the third quarter. The weakening of fundamental data in August increased the necessity of macro - policy support, which might lead to a shift in the focus of monetary policy towards "stable growth" [5]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may face pressure at the beginning, but there may be a downward opportunity with the implementation of policy加码. The central government may increase overall policies, and monetary policy may be implemented first by the end of the year. The central level of treasury bond yields in the fourth quarter may decline slightly compared to the end of the third quarter, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond at the end of the third quarter around 1.87% and may fall below 1.8%, and the quarterly oscillation range around 1.78% - 1.95% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third Quarter: Exogenous Factors Dominated - Market Review - July: Policy implementation and rising expectations led to a significant improvement in risk appetite. At the beginning of July, the bond market continued the strong and narrow - range oscillation trend of the second quarter. The implementation of anti - involution policies and the announcement of a trillion - level infrastructure project in Yajiang Motuo Hydropower Station worried the market about the double impact of "rising inflation + significant investment increase" on bonds. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose from 1.66% at the beginning of July to 1.74%, an increase of 8bp [19]. - August: The seesaw effect between the bond market and risk assets weakened as the A - share market turned to a structural market [16]. - September: Regulatory disturbances and marginal signals emerged. The release of the draft public offering fee opinion at the end of the third quarter had a new impact on the market [16]. - Core Issues - The key issues in looking forward to the fourth quarter were whether the above negative factors were fully reflected and whether the bond market logic could return to its own fundamentals [16]. 3.2 Valuation Still Has Room for Repair - Domestic Loose Expectations Are Stable: The short - end cost - performance of the 10 - year treasury bond has been repaired, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined [23]. - The Cost - Performance of Stocks and Bonds Has Rebounded: The cost - performance of stocks and bonds has improved, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has a certain relationship with the dividend rates of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 [37][39]. - "Deposit Migration" Still Needs Observation: No specific content was provided in the text. 3.3 Waiting for the Swing Moment of Policy Focus - Monetary Policy Has Been Stable Since the Third Quarter: Monetary policy has been stable overall since the third quarter. The central bank carried out a large - scale interest rate transmission system reform and actively maintained market sentiment through open - market operations, indicating that the supportive stance of monetary policy remained unchanged and the upward trend of bond market yields was limited [44]. - Multi - Dimensional Reforms to Stabilize the Market - The Second Joint Meeting of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance: On September 3, the joint working group of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance held the second group leader meeting, discussing issues such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, central bank treasury bond trading operations, and improving the offshore RMB treasury bond issuance mechanism. This meeting was more focused on financial market operation and helped to stabilize market sentiment [49]. - Changes in the Monetary Policy Framework: Adjustment of Primary Dealer Evaluation: On September 12, relevant adjustments were made to the evaluation of primary dealers, which involved multiple aspects such as money market transmission, bond market market - making, and compliance and stable operation [51]. - The Central Bank Adjusted the Bidding Mode of 14 - day Reverse Repos, Aligning with MLF: On September 19, the central bank adjusted the bidding mode of 14 - day reverse repos to align with MLF, which had an impact on the market [52]. 3.4 Fundamentals: Pay Attention to the Risk of a Second Decline - In the first half of the year, GDP was significantly repaired with the support of the supply side. After seeing the problem of the decline in industrial enterprise profits, the policy shifted from stabilizing growth to stabilizing prices, which led to a slowdown in production. Since July, the manufacturing PMI reading has declined again, and industrial added value has decreased synchronously. After the data in August was released, the potential risk of a second decline may lead to a swing in the policy focus again [65].