地方债周度跟踪：10Y和30Y减国债利差走阔，下周发行再放缓-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased on a week - on - week basis this period, and are expected to decline during the National Day holiday next period. As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is lower than that of 2024, with the progress of new general bonds higher but that of new special bonds lower than that of 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 840 billion yuan, including 485.8 billion yuan of new special bonds. As of September 26, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed this information [2]. - This period saw the issuance of 50.6 billion yuan of special new special bonds and 11.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 1,201.2 billion yuan, and that of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1,986.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.3% [2]. - The spread between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of September 26, 2025, the spreads were 22.32BP and 18.30BP respectively, up 6.21BP and 1.26BP from September 19, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 1.26%, up from 0.87% in the previous period [2]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has improved [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (September 22 - 28, 2025) was 196.051 billion yuan (188.519 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance next period (September 29 - October 3, 2025) is 107.153 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 19.81 years, longer than 15.89 years in the previous period [2][9][11]. - As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 82.7% and 82.6% of the annual quota respectively, and 83.9% and 83.8% considering the expected issuance next period. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 82.1%/85.0% and 84.4%/89.8%, and in 2023 was 89.6%/84.7% and 90.1%/87.0% [2][12][16]. - As of September 26, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 840 billion yuan (540.6 billion yuan in October and 299.4 billion yuan in November), including 485.8 billion yuan of new special bonds (367.8 billion yuan in October and 118 billion yuan in November) [2][22][23]. - As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 1,201.2 billion yuan (50.6 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1,986.2 billion yuan (11.4 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.3%, and 31 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance [2][20]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between 10 - year and 30 - year Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Increased on a Week - on - Week Basis - As of September 26, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.32BP and 18.30BP respectively, up 6.21BP and 1.26BP from September 19, 2025, and were at the 67.90% and 72.00% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][26][31]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.26%, up from 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Shandong were better than the national average [2][38]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].