中银量化多策略行业轮动周报-20250929

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation positions of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy industry rotation system, with significant weights in non-bank financials (11.7%) and communication (10.4%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -0.1%, with the best-performing sectors being electronics (5.8%), non-ferrous metals (4.5%), and power equipment and new energy (4.4%) [3][10] - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 0.3% this week, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 0.5% [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors this week were electronics (5.8%), non-ferrous metals (4.5%), and power equipment and new energy (4.4%), while the worst were retail (-3.9%), comprehensive finance (-3.5%), and consumer services (-3.4%) [3][10] - Year-to-date, the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 24.9%, compared to the benchmark's 22.1%, resulting in an excess return of 2.8% [3] Valuation Risk Alerts - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying sectors with high valuation risks [12] - Currently, sectors such as retail, media, computing, electronics, automotive, and defense are flagged for high valuation risks, with their PB ratios exceeding the 95th percentile of historical values [12][13] Strategy Performance - The top three sectors based on the high profitability industry rotation strategy (S1) are non-bank financials, agriculture, forestry, and fishery, and communication [15] - The implied sentiment momentum strategy (S2) ranks the top sectors as machinery, power equipment and new energy, and communication [19] - The macro style rotation strategy (S3) identifies the top sectors as comprehensive finance, computing, communication, defense, electronics, and media [23] Strategy Adjustments - The composite strategy has increased its allocation to the TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector while reducing exposure to upstream cyclical and midstream non-cyclical sectors [3]