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商品策略周报:节前继续观望-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution theme in the commodity market has entered a cooling stage, and the overall market is in a weak and volatile atmosphere. Trend strategies have low win - rates and odds, and it is difficult to operate [2][3][5]. - With the approaching of the National Day holiday, funds are flowing out. Investors should control their positions or stay in cash to avoid holiday risks [3][5]. - In terms of specific sectors, agricultural products are weak, while precious metals are strong [3]. - The market is currently affected by sudden news, with unclear main contradictions and insufficiently low valuations. It is advisable to wait patiently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Various sudden news, such as Argentina's suspension of agricultural product tariffs, Indonesia's copper mine suspension, and Russia's refinery attacks, have caused short - term shocks to the market, increasing trading difficulty and hampering strategy execution [4]. - The anti - involution theme market is in a cooling cycle, and the market is now trading the real - end logic of surplus varieties. The supply - demand patterns of soda ash, PVC and other varieties remain loose, and downstream demand is weak [4]. Product Strategy Recommendations - Abandon market prediction. Stable account profitability depends on strategy, risk control, and execution [5]. - The net value performance of the Chase the Wind 1 and Chase the Wind 2 strategy products is good. Chase the Wind 2 is in a free trial period and is worth trying for non - subscribed customers [5]. Data Tables - Plate Fund Flow: The total capital flow is 322 million yuan. Precious metals have an inflow of 3.022 billion yuan, non - ferrous metals 1.405 billion yuan, while black metals have an outflow of 2.959 billion yuan, energy 165 million yuan, chemicals 846 million yuan, feed and breeding 555 million yuan, oils and fats 1.597 billion yuan, and soft commodities have an inflow of 73 million yuan [9]. - Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data: Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, etc. are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, gold, etc. [9]. - Energy and Chemical Weekly Data: Similar data is presented for energy and chemical products like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [11]. - Agricultural Product Weekly Data: Data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are given [12].