Hengrui Pharma(SH:600276) BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-09-29 05:15Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing employment and inflation due to the contradiction between economic resilience and a gradual decline in employment, leading to ambiguity in future interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Eurozone shows signs of improvement in economic indicators following multiple interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with low policy rates and stable inflation supporting domestic demand [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand has weakened in the second half of the year, influenced by diminishing policy effects, extreme weather, and high base effects, while external demand has exceeded expectations [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to provide more certainty for domestic demand in Q4, with policies aimed at promoting consumption, stabilizing real estate, and expanding investment requiring time for validation [3][4] Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank has expressed a commitment to implementing detailed monetary policy, with current macro and micro liquidity remaining relatively ample [4] - Fiscal policy is under pressure due to the pre-issuance of government bonds, but there are indications of available fiscal resources for smooth transitions into the next year [4] Industry Developments - The National Organization for Drug Procurement has released the 11th batch of centralized procurement documents, indicating a shift towards using anchor prices rather than simply selecting the lowest bid, reflecting a trend against excessive competition in the pharmaceutical industry [8][9] - Recent approvals and clinical trials in the pharmaceutical sector include the launch of a subcutaneous formulation of Pembrolizumab and the initiation of Phase III trials for a new drug by Zai Lab [8][9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.83%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a decline of 1.68% during the week of September 19-25, 2025 [9] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was reported at 31.13 times, with a valuation premium of 146% relative to the CSI 300 index [9] Investment Strategy - The upcoming IPOs in the pharmaceutical sector, including the successful listing of Jinfang Pharmaceutical, indicate an opening window for new listings [9] - Investment strategies should focus on opportunities arising from interest rate cuts, innovation in drug development, and the benefits of optimized procurement rules in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [9]