有色金属周度策略-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the dot - plot shows two more expected rate cuts this year, with the US dollar index having room to decline. The copper supply shock caused by the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine will exacerbate the tight global copper supply - demand structure. The demand for copper in industries such as power, data centers, and new energy vehicles remains strong. However, the approaching holiday has led to some funds leaving the market for risk - avoidance, and the spill - over effect on other non - ferrous metals from the copper price increase is not sustainable [3][9][10]. - The strength of the US dollar index suppresses the rebound height of the non - ferrous metal sector. Before the holiday, it is recommended to be cautious in trading and use options for protection. Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety [5][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Advice - Macro Logic: The Fed has cut interest rates by 25bp, and future rate - cut decisions will depend on economic data. The US - EU trade agreement has been implemented, and the eurozone's September PMI data shows a mixed situation. China's LPR remains unchanged, and the central bank's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose. Before the holiday, market funds are leaving for risk - avoidance, and the support from pre - holiday stocking for non - ferrous metals is weakening [9]. - Single - side Strategies for Each Variety - Copper: The Grasberg mine accident will reduce copper production, and the global copper supply - demand will be more imbalanced. The Fed's rate - cut cycle is favorable for copper prices in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the short - term upper pressure range at 83000 - 84000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 80000 - 81000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum: The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses the rebound. Before the holiday, it is recommended to watch more and trade less, with the upper pressure range at 21300 - 21700 and the lower support range at 20200 - 20500. One can buy out - of - the - money options for protection [5]. - Alumina: The spot price is falling, and the operating capacity is increasing. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions, with the upper pressure range at 3500 - 3700 and the lower support range at 2700 - 2900. One can buy out - of - the - money call options for protection [5]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: Due to the tight supply of scrap and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with the upper pressure range at 20800 - 21000 and the lower support range at 20000 - 20300. One can buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - Tin: The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. It is recommended to close long positions and watch more before the holiday, with the upper pressure range at 260000 - 280000. One can buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - Zinc: The Fed's rate - cut and economic data affect the US dollar index. The zinc price is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - environment. The zinc price is oscillating weakly, with the upper pressure at 22300 - 22400 and the lower support at 21500 - 21600. It is recommended to trade based on volatility [6]. - Lead: The US dollar is rebounding, and there are news of lead - recycling enterprises' production suspension. The lead price is fluctuating. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high prices and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [6]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The Fed's rate - cut and economic data affect the US dollar index. The nickel price is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors. The nickel price is oscillating, with the upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and the lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan. The stainless - steel price is also oscillating, with the upper pressure at 13000 - 13200 and the lower support at 12700 - 12800. It is recommended to reduce positions for risk - avoidance before the holiday [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - Weekly Futures Price Changes: Copper closed at 82470 yuan/ton with a 3.28% increase; aluminum at 20745 yuan/ton with a 0.36% decrease; tin at 274070 yuan/ton with a 1.97% increase; lead at 17110 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease; nickel at 121380 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease; stainless steel at 12840 yuan/ton with a 0.16% decrease; and cast aluminum alloy at 20325 yuan/ton with a 0.29% decrease [14]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - Spot Prices: The spot price of copper, zinc, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals has different degrees of changes. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 82670 yuan/ton with a 0.16% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 21970 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price is 20780 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - Multiple charts are provided to track key data of different non - ferrous metal varieties, including inventory, processing fees, production, and price trends [22][23][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - Recommended Arbitrage Opportunities - Copper 2511 - 2512 Contract Reverse Arbitrage: The supply - side shock will have a more significant impact on the far - month contracts [14]. - Alumina 2502 - 2509 Contract Reverse Arbitrage: The near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [14]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - Option Strategies for Each Variety - Copper: Sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [4]. - Aluminum: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - Tin: Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - Zinc: Buy volatility [6]. - Lead: Use a straddle strategy (16400 - 17400) [6]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Buy out - of - the - money call options [6].