Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:14Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of iron ore is gradually increasing, with the global shipment rebounding, an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ore shipments, a slight decrease in Brazilian ore, and a slight decline in domestic ore production. On the demand side, the hot metal output continues to increase, but the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills is basically over, weakening the support for ore prices. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not significant. However, as the pre - holiday market sentiment cools, the futures price has declined. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the recovery range of steel demand in the peak season. The strategy is range - bound trading. [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content Price - Spot prices are oscillating downward [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder is oscillating at a low level [13] - The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder is oscillating at a low level [17] Futures Spread and Basis - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuates little, and the 01 basis oscillates at a low level [21] Relative Valuation - The steel - ore ratio oscillates at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillates at a high level [28] Supply - Global shipments stop falling and rebound, and non - mainstream ore shipments stop falling and rebound. From September 22nd to 28th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.754 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.506 million tons [5][34] - Australian ore shipped to China stops falling and rebounds, while Brazilian ore shipments decline slightly. The Australian shipment volume was 20.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0928 million tons; the Brazilian shipment volume was 8.193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons [5][38] - FMG and BHP shipments to China increase slightly [43] - RT shipments to China stop falling and rebound, while VALE shipments decline [47] - The freight rate index rebounds slightly [51] - The 45 - port arrival volume is 23.605 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.145 million tons [5] - The output of domestic iron concentrate decreases slightly. As of September 26th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 mines nationwide was 478,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% [5] Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces oscillates at a low level [67] - The profitability of steel mills declines, but the hot metal output rebounds slightly. On September 26th, the daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons [5][73] Inventory - The port inventory rebounds slightly, and the port throughput is at a high level. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports increases slightly, and the number of ships at the port decreases by 3 to 99 [5][80] - The inventory of Australian ore stops falling and rebounds, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continues to rise [84] - The coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory rebounds from a low level [91] - Steel mills' consumption is relatively high, and the inventory of imported ore rebounds significantly [98]