Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:14Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is strong, with overall supply - demand conditions improving. However, due to the approaching end of pre - holiday restocking and weakening market sentiment, the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the start - up rates in the north and south regions and the start - up rate of polysilicon [5][6]. - For polysilicon, there is an increase in supply and weak demand, with a growing risk of inventory accumulation. Market sentiment is gradually weakening, and it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. The price transmission in the industrial chain should be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 8960 yuan/ton [5][10]. - Supply: Xinjiang's production is stable with a small amount of restarts next week; the start - up rate in the northwest is basically stable; Yunnan's start - up rate is stable overall, and the electricity price will increase in October; Sichuan's production is basically flat, and a reduction is expected in late October. Overall, this week's production is basically stable [5]. - Demand: The start - up rate of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the demand for silicon powder orders from silicon material enterprises has been released. The production of silicon materials in October is expected to remain high, strongly supporting the demand for industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon has fluctuated slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained stable. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased. In August, the export of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [5]. - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon has remained stable this week [5]. - Inventory: As of September 25, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, the same as last week [6]. - Spread: As of September 26, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Polysilicon - Price: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 51,465 yuan/ton [7][19]. - Supply: The start - up of polysilicon has increased slightly this week. In October, the production plan shows that the production cut of silicon material enterprises is less than expected, and the overall output may exceed expectations [7]. - Demand: Downstream crystal - pulling enterprises are mostly in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. In August, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity hit a new low this year, and the Q4 downstream demand needs to be tracked. In August, the import volume of polysilicon was 1005.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%; in July, the export was 299.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40% [7]. - Cost: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [7]. - Inventory: The inventory is on the rise, and the procurement rhythm of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. - Spread: As of September 26, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the premium of N - type dense material over P - type cauliflower material was 19,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week [24]. Cost - Silicon Coal and Silica: As of September 26, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silicon coal was 1600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica was 340 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silica was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Yunnan silica was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Other Costs: The price of Shandong Port Saudi petroleum coke was 1355 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained unchanged from last week. The price of Yunnan wood chips and charcoal, as well as the price of Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes, remained stable [31][35]. Downstream - Silicon Wafers: As of September 26, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.35, 1.325, 1.4, and 1.7 yuan/piece respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The price of 210RN has adjusted back to 1.4 yuan/piece [38]. - Batteries: As of September 26, 2025, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were 0.32, 0.32, 0.29, and 0.305 yuan/watt respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The prices of some distributed products have declined, while the prices of centralized products have rebounded [42][45]. Organic Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of organic silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased [53].