Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-30 00:47Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and prices may be more affected by phased restocking demand. High开工 and high production are expected to continue, and long - term supply faces pressure. New alumina projects support demand, but alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices cap the upside of caustic soda prices. Export expectations are cautiously optimistic, and costs are supported. Attention should be paid to phased supply - demand mismatches [1]. - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Third - Quarter Market Review of Caustic Soda - In the third quarter, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with prices mainly in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton, affected by policy expectations and fundamental changes [1]. - From late June to early July, the market rose strongly, supported by stable spot prices and then driven by policy expectations. From late July to early August, the market corrected due to eased policy statements, cooled market sentiment, and weakened spot supply - demand. In mid - August, the market rebounded due to marginal improvement in fundamentals. From late August to mid - September, the market declined again after the end of phased restocking [2]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Caustic Soda - Caustic soda exports: As of now, exports this year are 860,000 tons more than the same period last year. Annual exports are expected to reach about 4.1 million tons, accounting for 10% - 11% of apparent demand. However, August export data was below expectations, and there are rumors of new energy process adjustments affecting demand [16]. - Alumina production and alkali - stocking rhythm: Many alumina capacities are to be put into production from the end of 2025 to early 2026, supporting caustic soda demand. But alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices may limit caustic soda's upside and affect alumina's production progress [17]. - Supply policies and costs: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits are high, so the possibility of active supply - side production cuts is small. However, policy expectations may have an unexpected impact on supply and cost - side raw material pricing [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook of Caustic Soda 4.1 High Profits, Continued Supply Pressure of Caustic Soda - From January to September, caustic soda production totaled 31.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. This year's new caustic soda capacity is estimated to be around 2.4 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 4.8% - 4.9%. By the end of the year, the capacity base may rise to 51 - 52 million tons. But actual implementation is less optimistic, with few certain new capacities in the fourth quarter [19]. - High profits limit caustic soda price increases, but there have been periods of high profits in history due to short - term supply - demand mismatches [22]. 4.2 Waiting for Alumina Production to Materialize - From the end of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, there are still many alumina capacities to be put into production, creating caustic soda stocking demand in the fourth quarter. However, alumina's surplus situation and low prices limit caustic soda's upside. Non - aluminum demand is fragmented, and short - term restocking at low prices has some price support but does not change the supply - demand balance [25]. 4.3 Exports are Key - From January to August 2025, caustic soda exports were 2.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16%, due to increased Southeast Asian demand and domestic price advantages. In the short - to - medium term, export expectations remain high, but there are rumors of overseas process adjustments affecting demand. In October, export orders improved, supporting demand [39][40].