金融期货早评-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic situation shows marginal improvement in the economic cycle, but there are still pressures in the future, and policy support is necessary. The new policy - based financial instruments can play a role in stabilizing growth and boosting investment. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision depends on data [2]. - For different financial products: - Stock index: It is expected to be strong under the influence of positive factors, but due to the release of important data during the holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - Treasury bond: There is a lack of positive drivers in the bond market, and it is recommended to close positions and wait and see before the festival [5]. - Container shipping: The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The 12 - contract can focus on low - buying opportunities and mainly adopt a wait - and - see or intraday short - term trading strategy [6]. - Precious metals: They are strong in the medium - and long - term, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday due to the approaching National Day and increased short - term positions [11]. - Copper: The supply - side problems of the Grasberg copper mine have a long - term impact on copper prices, and it is not recommended to chase the high price in the short term [13]. - Aluminum and related products: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Zinc: It is in a situation of mixed long and short factors, with a slow downward center of gravity, and it is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The market is difficult to have large fluctuations before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce positions [19]. - Tin: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback [20]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [21]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon: There is no significant change in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment is average [23]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [24]. - Steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc.): The market shows a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand and a small reduction in inventory, but the de - stocking pressure is still significant. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - Iron ore: It is under the dual influence of the exhaustion of macro - positive factors and the peak of fundamentals, and the price is in a weak - fluctuating pattern [29]. - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal supply is strong, and the coke price increase has been implemented. The short - term disk may face downward pressure, and the medium - and long - term needs to pay attention to policy and demand changes [31]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese: There is cost support, and the term structure is gradually improving, but there is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [33]. - Crude oil: The geopolitical boost to oil prices has faded, and there are still uncertainties in the market. Investors need to focus on risk control [35]. - PTA - PX: The price rebounds at a low level, but the polyester peak season is limited. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [40]. - MEG - bottle chips: The demand has improved marginally, but it is still in a pressured pattern. It is expected to fluctuate between 4100 - 4300 yuan [45]. - Methanol: It is not recommended to operate before the National Day, and the sold put options can continue to be held [46]. - PP: The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the start - up of marginal devices and the opportunity of buying at a low price [49]. - PE: It is in a weak - fluctuating pattern, and the upward space is limited [51]. - Pure benzene and styrene: They follow the cost side to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider expanding the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [53]. - Fuel oil: It is recommended to wait and see due to the limited upward driving force of cracking [54]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [55]. - Asphalt: The peak season has no super - expected performance. It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes, and pay attention to position control during the holiday [58]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: They are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - term long positions at a low price [59]. - Urea: It is in a pattern of support at the bottom and suppression at the top, and the 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [61]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: They are in a fluctuating pattern. Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass has a problem of high inventory and weak demand; caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [62][63]. - Livestock: For pigs, it is recommended to short at a high price; for oilseeds, they are in a weak - fluctuating pattern at the bottom; for oils, the far - month palm oil is promising; for soybeans, it is recommended to hold short - hedge positions; for corn and starch, the market is weak; for cotton, it is necessary to pay attention to the purchase during the National Day [65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: There are various domestic and international policies and events, such as the new policy - based financial instruments of 500 billion yuan, and overseas events like the possible government shutdown in the US and the situation in the Middle East [1]. - Stock Index: The previous trading day's index was strong, and the capital inflow increased. Under the influence of positive factors, it is expected to be strong, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3][4]. - Treasury Bond: The previous trading day's bond price fell, and the yield rose. The new policy - based financial instruments may delay the RRR cut and interest - rate cut, and it is recommended to close positions and wait and see [5]. - Container Shipping: The futures price fell, and the spot price was stable or increased. The price decline was affected by Trump's tariff increase and the price adjustment of some shipping companies. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: The price continued to rise, driven by investment demand and short - term capital. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday due to the approaching National Day and increased short - term positions [9][11]. - Copper: The Grasberg copper mine accident led to a significant increase in copper prices. The accident will have a long - term impact on the global copper supply chain, and it is not recommended to chase the high price in the short term [12][13]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum is affected by supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina has an oversupply problem, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options; cast aluminum alloy has a pattern of mixed long and short factors and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15][16]. - Zinc: The price was weak, and the supply was in a surplus state. The short - term was affected by macro and gold prices, and the long - term was dominated by the supply - demand relationship. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The price fell, and the market was difficult to have large fluctuations before the festival. The supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel were affected by different factors, and it is recommended to reduce positions [19]. - Tin: The price rose due to the supply - side tightening caused by Indonesia's action to cut off illegal mining routes. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback [20]. - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price increased slightly, and the spot market was cold. It is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The futures price decreased, and the spot market was stable. There is no significant change in the fundamentals, and the market sentiment is average [22][23]. - Lead: The price was weak, and the supply was affected by the production of primary and secondary lead. The demand was general, and there was some pre - holiday stockpiling. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [24]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The market showed a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand and a small reduction in inventory, but the de - stocking pressure was still significant. The disk was expected to fluctuate weakly [25][26]. - Iron Ore: The price declined, and the supply was loose. The demand was affected by the steel mill's profitability and the downstream inventory. The price was in a weak - fluctuating pattern [27][29]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal supply was strong, and the coke price increase was implemented. The short - term disk may face downward pressure, and the medium - and long - term needs to pay attention to policy and demand changes [30][31]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: The price fell, and there was cost support. The term structure was gradually improving, but there was a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price fell significantly, and the geopolitical boost to oil prices faded. There are still uncertainties in the market, and investors need to focus on risk control [35]. - PTA - PX: The price rebounded at a low level, and the polyester peak season was limited. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [37][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand improved marginally, but it was still in a pressured pattern. It is expected to fluctuate between 4100 - 4300 yuan [41][45]. - Methanol: The price was stable, and the inventory decreased. It is not recommended to operate before the National Day, and the sold put options can continue to be held [46]. - PP: The price increased slightly, and the supply and demand had their own characteristics. The downward space was limited, and it was recommended to pay attention to the start - up of marginal devices and the opportunity of buying at a low price [47][49]. - PE: The price increased slightly, and the supply was expected to increase. The demand recovery was slow, and the market was in a weak - fluctuating pattern [50][51]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The price fell, and the supply and demand situation was different. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider expanding the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [52][53]. - Fuel Oil: The price was stable, and the supply and demand situation was complex. The cracking upward driving force was limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The supply was narrowing, the demand was weak, and the upward driving force was limited. It is recommended to wait and see [55]. - Asphalt: The price was stable, and the supply increased while the demand was affected by weather. The inventory structure improved, and it is recommended to try long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes and pay attention to position control during the holiday [57][58]. - Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: The price declined, and the supply and demand situation was complex. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - term long positions at a low price [59]. Agricultural Products - Livestock: The pig price continued to fall, and the market was in a situation of oversupply. It is recommended to short at a high price [65]. - Oilseeds: The market was affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian negotiations. The soybean supply and demand situation was different, and the rapeseed meal inventory was expected to decrease seasonally. It is recommended to hold short - call covered positions [66][67]. - Oils: The market was in a state of shock. The far - month palm oil was promising, and the supply and demand of different oils were affected by different factors [68]. - Soybeans: The price was stable, and the new - season soybean supply was expected to increase. It is recommended to hold short - hedge positions [69]. - Corn and Starch: The market was weak, and the new - season corn supply was expected to increase. The price was expected to be weak [70]. - Cotton: The price fell, and the market was worried about the US macro - environment. It is necessary to pay attention to the purchase during the National Day [71].