Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-30 03:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.701 billion and net profit at 443 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 17.41% and 24.98% respectively [1] - In Q2 2025, the company saw a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, with revenue at 1.125 billion and net profit at 97 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.44% in revenue but an increase of 139.48% in net profit [1] - The growth in ordinary liquor sales is attributed to a low base in Q2 2024 and the continued momentum of upgraded products like T68 [2] - The company is experiencing pressure on mid-to-high-end liquor sales due to regulatory impacts, while ordinary liquor sales have shown significant growth [2] - The gross margin slightly declined to 60.60% in Q2 2025, while the net profit margin increased to 8.64%, driven by a reduction in sales and management expense ratios [3] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 5.2 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.3 billion respectively, and net profits of 450 million, 530 million, and 630 million respectively [3] Financial Data Summary - For 2025E, the company expects revenue of 5.216 billion, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous year, and a net profit of 450.97 million, an increase of 30.42% [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.36 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 45.40 [5] - The company’s total assets are projected to be 12.136 billion by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 37.80% [11]