山西汾酒（600809）：调整期韧性凸显，全国化势能延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience during the adjustment period, with a continued momentum for national expansion [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of 239.64 billion and 85.05 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 5.35% and 1.13% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 74.41 billion and 18.57 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.45% but a decline in net profit of 13.50% [1] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the total revenue from alcoholic beverages was 73.95 billion yuan, with revenue from Fenjiu and other alcoholic beverages at 71.79 billion and 2.16 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 were 71.88% and 24.96%, reflecting a decrease of 3.21 and 4.03 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The operating cash flow for Q2 2025 showed a significant decline of 217.72% to -10.46 billion yuan [3] Market and Channel Performance - The revenue contribution from outside the province increased, with provincial and non-provincial revenues in Q2 2025 at 26.49 billion and 47.46 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The number of distributors decreased by 202 to 3,994, while the average scale per distributor increased by 5.52% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from agency and direct sales (including group purchases and e-commerce) in Q2 2025 was 68.96 billion and 4.99 billion yuan, respectively [2] Financial Forecasts - The company revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 369 billion, 402 billion, and 439 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 390 billion, 425 billion, and 463 billion yuan [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is now expected to be 123 billion, 134 billion, and 147 billion yuan, compared to earlier estimates of 130 billion, 141 billion, and 155 billion yuan [3] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 19X, 18X, and 16X for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 31,928.48 million yuan, with a growth rate of 21.80% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 10,438.11 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 28.93% [4] - The projected P/E ratio for 2023 is 22.74, decreasing to 16.13 by 2027 [4]