顺鑫农业（000860）：更新报告：白酒承压，等待修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in H1 2025, with revenue at 4.59 billion yuan (down 19.2% year-on-year) and a net profit of 170 million yuan (down 59.1%) [1][3] - The company is actively promoting product upgrades and innovative marketing strategies, which are expected to help recover performance as the economy stabilizes [1][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 2024 at 9.13 billion yuan, 2025 at 7.80 billion yuan (down 14.5%), 2026 at 7.88 billion yuan (up 1.04%), and 2027 at 8.12 billion yuan (up 2.99%) [4] - Net profit forecasts are: 2024 at 231.2 million yuan, 2025 at 175.7 million yuan (down 23.99%), 2026 at 199.1 million yuan (up 13.34%), and 2027 at 244.8 million yuan (up 22.93%) [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.31 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.24 yuan in 2025, then increasing to 0.27 yuan in 2026 and 0.33 yuan in 2027 [4] Business Performance - The company's white liquor revenue in H1 2025 was 3.61 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year, with high-end liquor at 530 million yuan (down 12.3%) and low-end liquor at 2.58 billion yuan (down 25.4%) [8] - The pork business generated 782 million yuan in revenue in H1 2025, a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of only 0.01% [8] - The company's sales cash receipts were 3.469 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 17.5% year-on-year, while contract liabilities decreased by 33.47% to 385 million yuan [8]