有色金属周度报告：智利9月发运延续回落，去库支撑短期价格-20251008

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices of lithium carbonate are supported by destocking, but it's difficult to drive prices up independently. In the long - term, the supply side is expected to remain high or increase, while the demand side faces downward pressure [2][17] - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when prices are high and the reverse spread opportunity between LC2511 and LC2512 [3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chile's September Shipment Continued to Decline, and Destocking Supported Short - term Prices - Before the holiday (09/22 - 09/30), lithium salt prices showed a weak oscillation. LC2510's closing price dropped 1.4% month - on - month to 72,700 yuan/ton, and LC2511's closing price dropped 1.6% month - on - month to 72,800 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased 0.1% month - on - month to 73,600 and 71,300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased within the week. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide dropped 0.6% and 0.5% month - on - month to 73,600 and 78,600 yuan/ton respectively. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to near 0 [1][10] - In September, Chile exported a total of 18,300 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 9% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 11,100 tons, a 15% month - on - month and 33% year - on - year decrease, and the arrival volume in October is expected to continue to decline. From January to September, Chile exported a total of 188,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 121,000 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In terms of lithium sulfate, in September, Chile shipped 8,400 tons (4,200 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 21% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, a total of 70,000 tons (35,000 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 101% year - on - year increase [2][11] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, which will increase the company's lithium salt production capacity [18] - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation [18] - Core Lithium terminated the last off - take agreement of the Finniss lithium project, paying $2 million to release the future production capacity of the project [18] - Liontown Resources reached an agreement with Tesla to modify the pricing mechanism in the long - term off - take agreement [19] - The US government acquired a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a 5% stake in its joint project with General Motors, and Lithium Americas will draw $435 million from a previously announced $2.26 billion loan [19] - Eight lithium mines in Yichun have submitted relevant reports, and the possibility of suspension of production of producing mines is low [20][21] 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remained Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at $858/ton, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease [11] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Market Was Weakly Oscillating - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot showed a weak oscillation. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 decreased month - on - month, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [1][10][11] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Declined - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of changes, with some prices rising slightly and some remaining stable [11] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power batteries further increased [46]