CMSK(SZ:001979) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-08 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5][46]. Core Views - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a rebound in leading companies and opening up new development avenues for "new products, new pricing, and new models" [5][46]. - The current monetary easing cycle is seen as advantageous for commercial real estate, with a reassessment of the value of high-quality commercial properties already beginning to manifest [5][46]. Industry Data - New home transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 22% year-on-year during the National Day holiday, with total transactions of 40 million square meters, which is only 42% of the average from 2017 to 2024 [5][15]. - In October, new home transactions in 34 cities are down 28.4% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down 23.2% and third and fourth-tier cities down 58.5% [5][8]. - The inventory of residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a total available area of 90.43 million square meters [5][28]. Policy and News Tracking - Various cities have introduced supportive policies for the real estate sector, including measures in Chongqing, Hefei, and Yunnan to enhance housing supply and optimize loan conditions [5][37]. - The report highlights significant land transactions, including a residential land deal in Beijing for approximately 4.31 billion yuan and six residential land deals in Nanjing totaling about 4.21 billion yuan [5][39]. Company Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 million preferred shares to fund project delivery, while Yuexiu Property secured a 3 billion HKD revolving loan [5][42]. - Jianfa International reported a cumulative sales amount of 71.03 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [5][42]. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 3.01%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 1.99% [5][46]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for mainstream AH-listed real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are 17.5 and 15.3 times, respectively [5][51].