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爱美客(300896):2025年中报点评:静待外延并购与新品驱动增长拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 215.56 CNY, while the current price is 181.55 CNY [5][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point in growth driven by external acquisitions and new product launches. The short-term performance is under pressure due to a weak consumption environment and intensified competition, but long-term prospects remain positive due to the synergistic effects of new product iterations, international acquisitions, and R&D barriers [5][9]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 3,026 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4%. However, a decline of 12.2% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 22.9% in 2026 and 16.2% in 2027 [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,958 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.3%. This is expected to decline by 17.2% in 2025, before increasing by 25.7% in 2026 and 15.3% in 2027 [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 6.47 CNY for 2024, decreasing to 5.36 CNY in 2025, and then recovering to 6.74 CNY in 2026 and 7.77 CNY in 2027 [4][10]. Market Performance - The company has faced significant challenges, with a 21.6% decline in total revenue in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, and a 29.6% drop in net profit. The gross margin has slightly decreased to 93.4%, while the net margin stands at 60.9% [9][10]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including an 85% stake in the South Korean company REGEN, which is expected to enhance its international presence and product offerings [9][10]. R&D and Product Pipeline - The company has increased its R&D expenditure, with a rate of 12.0% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a commitment to innovation and a robust pipeline that includes products in advanced fields such as botulinum toxin and recombinant proteins [9][10]. - The diverse product pipeline and ongoing R&D efforts are seen as critical for sustainable business development [9][10].