Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated impressive performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 31.3% year-on-year to 2.59 billion and net profit rising by 36.1% to 670 million, aligning with market expectations [1][9]. - The company is expanding its product categories, particularly in the fragrance segment, and has successfully launched high-end perfume series, enhancing its brand positioning [9]. - The dual-channel strategy (online and offline) is showing robust growth, with online sales increasing by 39% and offline sales by 27%, indicating a healthy synergy between the two channels [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 3.885 billion, 2025E at 5.142 billion, 2026E at 6.588 billion, and 2027E at 8.273 billion, with respective growth rates of 34.6%, 32.4%, 28.1%, and 25.6% [3][11]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 881 million in 2024A to 1.936 billion in 2027E, with growth rates of 33.0%, 35.3%, 28.2%, and 26.8% [3][11]. - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 84.2% and a net margin of 25.9% in the first half of 2025, reflecting stable profitability [9]. Business Segmentation - Revenue breakdown shows 55% from color cosmetics, 42% from skincare, 3% from makeup artistry training, and 0.4% from fragrances [9]. - The offline sales contribute 47% of total revenue, while online sales account for 50%, showcasing a balanced distribution between channels [9]. Future Growth Potential - The company has significant room for SKU expansion, currently at approximately 400 SKUs, particularly in lip, eye, and foundation products [9]. - The report highlights the potential for improved store efficiency compared to international brands, suggesting ongoing growth opportunities [9].
毛戈平（01318）：2025年中报点评：渠道优势突出，品类拓展持续，香氛上新引擎