白糖产业风险管理日报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus persists, and with the expected increase in production in India and Thailand in October, sugar prices are under pressure. However, multiple typhoons in late September and early October have affected sugarcane in Guangxi, and the losses are yet to be estimated [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include sufficient sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, China's suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, Brazil's increase in ethanol and biodiesel blending ratios, and typhoon - related damage to sugarcane. Negative factors include changes in production, supply, and sales data in various regions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.50% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5600 - 5650, and sell call options (SR601C5700) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 60 - 80 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5450 - 5500, and sell put options (SR601P5400) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The global sugar supply surplus situation continues. The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in production due to expanded planting areas may be affected by typhoons in Guangxi [4]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - Positive Factors: - India's 2024/25 sugar ending inventory is estimated to be 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [5]. - Typhoons have damaged sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi [5]. - Negative Factors: - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased while the amount of crushed sugarcane decreased [6]. - The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 740 million tons, the highest since 2017/18 [6]. - In August 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year, and the situation in different periods varies [8]. - In the first half of September, Brazil's sugar production in the central - southern region increased significantly [9]. - As of the end of August, the sugar sales and inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [9]. 3.4 Price Data - Basis: On October 9, 2025, the basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11) showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - Futures Prices and Spreads: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly changes of sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11), and the spreads between different contracts showed various trends [11]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On October 9, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions (Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, Rizhao) and the regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes [12]. - Sugar Import Prices: On October 9, 2025, the quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices showed different daily and weekly changes [13][14].