Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-09 10:02Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.62% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose strongly during the day, and the overall non - ferrous metals market was strong. - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, and the 2026 quota is expected to decline. - In the new energy market, the downstream procurement willingness recovered after the holiday, with tight market circulation, low inventory, and continued strong subsequent quotes. - The upward momentum of nickel - iron prices has dissipated, but the downward space is limited due to cost pressure. - In the stainless steel market, spot transactions improved after the holiday, and export prospects are positive, which may relieve the pressure of weak demand recovery. [3] Group 5: Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promoted the continuous construction of the nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel was illegal. - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year. [5] Bearish Factors - High pure nickel inventory. - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist. - As of now, the demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has fallen short of expectations. [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main - continuous | 124,480 | 3,580 | 3% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 124,480 | 3,580 | 2.96% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 124,660 | 3,600 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 124,850 | 3,580 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,382 | - 103 | - 2.95% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 130,864 | 3,674 | 2.89% | lots | | Open Interest | 86,038 | 9,898 | 13.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 24,775 | - 42 | - 0.17% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | - 610 | 135 | - 18.1% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main - continuous | 1,286 | 130 | 1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 1,286 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 1,288 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 1,295 | 120 | 0.94% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 88,195 | - 39,957 | - 31.18% | lots | | Open Interest | 60,514 | - 7,320 | - 10.79% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 86,551 | - 418 | - 0.48% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | 840 | 30 | 3.70% | yuan/ton | [6] Group 7: Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 40,828 | - 656 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 236,892 | 4,260 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 | 11.8 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 | - 614.5 | [7]