Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-09 12:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and it is not advisable to chase high after the rebound. Partial profit - taking of long positions can be considered [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. Trading volume of TF, T, and TL contracts decreased significantly. Cash bond trading was light, and yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33. Open - market reverse repurchase was 61.2 billion,买断式逆回购 was 110 billion, and the net withdrawal was 35.13 billion [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting showed differences within the Fed regarding the subsequent rate - cut amplitude. The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export controls on relevant overseas rare - earth items [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Treasury bond futures continued the pre - holiday rebound trend today, unaffected by the sharp rise in the stock market. Due to some investment managers and traders still on vacation, market trading was relatively light. The National Development and Reform Commission announced at a press conference before the holiday that it would work with relevant parties to promote new policy - based financial instruments with a scale of 500 billion yuan to supplement project capital. In the future, attention should be paid to the central bank's specific arrangements for this policy. In the short term, the central bank may still prefer to use structural tools to support the real economy and postpone the timing of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts [3]. 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 09 Price | 2025 - 09 - 30 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 09 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 30 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.41 | 102.374 | 0.036 | 75,441 | 74,895 | 546 | | TF2512 | 105.75 | 105.655 | 0.095 | 149,401 | 150,436 | - 1035 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.885 | 0.165 | 252,116 | 249,185 | 2931 | | TL2512 | 114.53 | 114 | 0.53 | 174,133 | 170,726 | 3407 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0372 | - 0.0131 | - 0.0241 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 29,898 | 29,604 | 294 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.034 | - 0.0013 | - 0.0327 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 51,620 | 62,260 | - 10640 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0524 | 0.2077 | - 0.1553 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 73,515 | 91,682 | - 18167 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.319 | 0.3574 | - 0.0384 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 97,276 | 135,369 | - 38093 | [4]