泸州老窖（000568）：25H1业绩平稳，期待低度新品打造新增长极

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company reported a stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, down 2.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, down 7.97% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to launch a new low-alcohol product, 28° Guojiao, in H2 2025, which is anticipated to contribute to new growth [1][2]. - The company’s liquor revenue was 16.397 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.62% year-on-year, with sales volume and price changes of +2.09% and -4.62% respectively [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the gross margin was 87.09%, and the net profit margin was 46.57%, both showing slight declines year-on-year [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios decreased to 9.23% and 3.11% respectively [2]. - The operating cash flow decreased by 26.27% year-on-year to 6.064 billion yuan, while contract liabilities increased by 50.95% to 3.535 billion yuan [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 29.538 billion yuan, 31.976 billion yuan, and 33.461 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 12.176 billion yuan, 13.365 billion yuan, and 14.554 billion yuan [3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 16X, 14X, and 13X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. Market Position and Channel Performance - Traditional and emerging channel revenues were 15.465 billion yuan and 932 million yuan respectively, with traditional channels declining by 3.99% and emerging channels growing by 27.55% year-on-year [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 70 to 1,791, while the average revenue per distributor increased by 1.18% to 9.1553 million yuan [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s current price-to-earnings ratio is 14.43, with a projected decrease to 13.13 by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-book ratio is currently at 4.62, expected to decline to 3.26 by 2027 [4].