BHP(US:BHP) Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-09 11:57Report Overview - Report Title: BHP and Chinese Miners' Negotiation Stalemate Has Limited Short-Term Impact [3] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Report Author: CITIC Futures Research Institute, Black Building Materials Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short-term impact on BHP's shipping volume is expected to be small, remaining at a level comparable to the same period last year, and the news has a limited impact on the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of the negotiation between the two sides [6]. Summary by Directory Negotiation Situation - Bloomberg reported that due to the negotiation deadlock, the consultation between BHP and Chinese iron ore traders may last for several months or even extend to early 2026. As BHP has sold most of the iron ore for November and December delivery, the quantity shipped to China has hardly been affected. The impact of China's suspension of purchases may gradually appear when BHP starts selling ore for January 2026 delivery [4]. Fundamental Situation - In 2024, BHP's total shipping volume (calculated at 100% equity) was approximately 290 million tons, of which about 250 million tons were shipped to China, accounting for about 86% of its total shipping volume and 19% of the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports. As of October 3, 2025, BHP had shipped 189 million tons to China, a year-on-year decrease of 3.15 million tons [5]. Future Outlook - If the Bloomberg report is true, the short-term impact on BHP's shipping volume is expected to be small, remaining at a level comparable to the same period last year, and the news has a limited impact on the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of the negotiation between the two sides [6].