美国或将对俄实施更多制裁，中国沪指创十年新高

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience a short - term decline due to the end of the Middle - East conflict and the full pricing of positive factors [12][13]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. - US stock index futures are likely to maintain a relatively strong trend after the impact of the government shutdown event subsides [21]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a short - term high - level trend, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [26][27]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy [31]. - ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and short - term callback risks need to be noted [39][40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. - Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. - The price of red dates may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the acquisition price in the production area [45]. - The spot price of polysilicon may remain flat, and the price of components is expected to fluctuate in the short term [47][48]. - It is advisable to go long on industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [52]. - For lead, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [55]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [57]. - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [60][61]. - The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [64]. - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [66]. - The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [68]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [71]. - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [73]. - The PVC price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [76]. - The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [78]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [81]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [83]. - It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [85]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [86]. - The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [88][89]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Middle - East cease - fire agreement and full pricing of positive factors lead to a high - level correction of gold prices. Gold prices may fall due to short - term profit - taking by bulls [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may impose more sanctions on Russia, and the Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - TSMC's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations. Amid the vacuum of macro data, the market is sensitive to AI industry news. After the impact of the government shutdown event subsides, US stock index futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. The stock market showed strong sentiment on the first trading day after the holiday, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [22][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan. Due to weak terminal demand, the bond market strengthened against the stock market. It is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan next year, which will tighten the global palm oil supply - demand pattern. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise [30][31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production was strong in the first half of September, but the high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decrease in production later. ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [35][36][37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks and the CMI index increased in September. After the holiday, the steel price continued to oscillate, and the market entered the peak - season demand verification period. Short - term callback risks need to be noted [38][39][40]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The supply of thermal coal was not loose during the National Day, but the demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazilian mining company Minerita signed a contract with Metso. Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the drying period. The price of the futures main contract rose after the holiday. The current inventory is at a relatively high level, and the price may rebound in the short term [43][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells and components. The polysilicon spot price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [46][47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Two departments aimed to regulate price competition. The seasonal inventory change of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is advisable to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [50][52]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of lead is expected to oscillate and rise. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [54][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained mining rights. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Indonesia introduced policies to help SMEs obtain mining rights, and Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [58][59][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of Middle - East LPG changed, and some PDH devices had maintenance plans. The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [62][63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly. The carbon market supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65][66]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [67][68]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted flexibly after the holiday. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased. The price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was adjusted slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [84][85]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [85][86]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of major ports increased from January to August. The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [87][88][89].