新能源及有色金属日报：多空博弈剧烈，碳酸锂高开低走-20251010

1. Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,200 yuan/ton and closed at 73,340 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 361,093 lots, and the open interest was 229,022 lots, down from 231,964 lots the previous trading day. The current basis was 170 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 42,379 lots, a change of 670 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. After the holiday, the market trading was light, and both upstream and downstream were on the sidelines. New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October was expected to have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 119 tons to 20,635 tons. The output from spodumene production increased slightly, while the output from mica production decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,024 tons to 134,801 tons. The inventory of smelters increased, while the inventory in the intermediate links and downstream decreased [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE), all to China, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 9% and 21% respectively. The average export price was 3,249 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 561% and 45% respectively. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 31,900 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 127% (an increase of 34,700 tons) [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 13% and 6% respectively. The average export price was 8,704 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 15% and 2% respectively. Among them, the amount exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%), the amount exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the amount exported to South Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons). The amount exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the amount exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%, and the amount exported to South Korea was 29,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 76% [2]. - On October 9, 2025, Cailian Press reported that Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., recently received the Certificate of Real Estate Right (Mining Right) and the Mining License issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. The mine is the Qarhan Salt Lake Potash - Magnesium Mine of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and a mining depth from 2,680 meters to 2,658 meters above sea level. The mining minerals include the main mineral of potash salt, and the associated minerals of salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3]. 2. Strategy - The futures market opened high and closed low on the day. There was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbances at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines were restarted later and consumption weakened, the market might decline [4]. - Unilateral: In the short term, conduct range - bound operations and sell hedges on rallies [4]. - There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].