Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-10 08:54Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short term, there is adjustment pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the silver squeeze event. It is not advisable to chase the rise of London gold in the short term, and it is recommended to hold the previous long - position bottom position and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals sector fluctuated significantly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The squeeze and shortage in the LBMA silver spot market were the main reasons for the sharp intraday rise in silver prices. The final closing prices of relevant contracts were: COMEX gold 2512 contract at $3991.1 per ounce, down 1.95%; COMEX silver 2512 contract at $47.655 per ounce, down 2.73%; SHFE gold 2512 contract at 914.32 yuan per gram, up 4.82%; SHFE silver 2512 contract at 11169 yuan per kilogram, up 2.22% [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The overall expectation of interest rate cuts is stable. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.1%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 17.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 82%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 56.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.7%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.14 tons to 1013.44 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15415.53 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.5 tons to 1186.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 43.6 tons to 1172.4 tons in the week ending September 26 [3] This Week's Focus - Pay attention to the preliminary value of the October US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index tonight. At 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give an opening speech and host a discussion at a community bankers' seminar. At 01:00 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech [4] Precious Metals Price and Spread Data - The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX precious metals futures and spot are provided in the "Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table", including SHFE gold main - continuous contract at 914.32 yuan per gram, up 4.57%; SGX gold TD at 911.38 yuan per gram, up 4.59%; CME gold main contract at $3991.1 per ounce, down 1.71%; SHFE silver main - continuous contract at 11169 yuan per kilogram, up 2.3%; SGX silver TD at 11176 yuan per kilogram, up 2.94%; CME silver main contract at $47.655 per ounce, down 1.62%. Also, data on SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and CME gold - silver ratio are provided [6][7] Inventory and Position Data - The "Inventory and Position Table" shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings. For example, SHFE gold inventory is 70728 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1242.2946 tons, down 0.39%; SHFE gold position is 251137 lots, down 2.23%; SHFE silver inventory is 1186.846 tons, down 0.46%; CME silver inventory is 16364.308 tons, down 0.39%; SGX silver inventory is 1172.37 tons, down 3.66%; SHFE silver position is 477441 lots, up 0.25%; SLV silver holdings is 15452.228555 tons, up 0.24% [15] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The "Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview" table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial and commodity indicators, such as the US dollar index at 99.3875, up 0.55%; US dollar against the Chinese yuan at 7.1358, down 0.24%; Dow Jones Industrial Average at 46358.42 points, down 0.52%; WTI crude oil spot at $62.55 per barrel, up 1.33%; LmeS copper 03 at $10776.5 per ton, up 0.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield at 4.14%, up 0.24%; 10 - year US real interest rate at 1.8%, up 1.12%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread at 0.55%, down 3.51% [21]