Vale(US:VALE) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-10 11:13Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazil has abundant copper resources with diverse deposit types, mainly distributed in the south and northeast, and has great potential for growth in copper reserves and production [1][53]. - Brazil's relatively complete mineral resource law attracts foreign investment in the mining industry, but there are also restrictions on foreign capital inflows that may affect mining investment [1][17]. - The continuous improvement of Brazil's mining law system and policies support the development of key minerals for energy transition, promoting the rational and efficient development of Brazil's mineral resources [25]. - Brazil's copper mine production is on the rise, and its copper concentrate exports are also increasing, with China being the largest export destination [2][46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of Brazilian Copper Resources - Geological Conditions and Deposit Types: Brazil is located in the Brazilian Basin with ancient and complex geology, characterized by "Three Shields and Three Basins," and has rich copper resources. Different from other regions, Brazil has more composite - type copper deposits, with the top four types accounting for 85% of the total [7][8]. - Distribution of Copper Mines: Brazilian copper mines are mainly distributed in the south and northeast, such as the Carajás region, Amazon Basin, and some states like Pará, Bahia, etc. These areas are important bases for the Brazilian copper mining industry [8]. - Growth Potential of Reserves and Production: As of 2022, Brazil's copper reserves were 11.2 million tons, accounting for 1.30% of the global total. The estimated copper resource volume is 32.93 million tons. In 2024, the copper production was 425,000 tons, accounting for 1.86% of the global total. With the attraction of international investment, there is great potential for growth in copper reserves and production [12]. 2. Optimization of Brazilian Mineral Resource Law and its Impact on the Copper Industry - Attraction of Foreign Investment through Laws: Brazil's mining management has a sound legal system. The current Mining Code was revised in 2022. The law encourages and protects exploration and mining activities, especially foreign investment. It also provides preferential tax policies and relaxed foreign - ownership restrictions for new copper projects [17][20][21]. - Restrictions on Foreign Capital Inflows: Brazil has strict foreign exchange control policies, and transferring profits out of the country may face challenges and high taxes. Additionally, political, policy, and force - majeure risks may make foreign investors cautious [23][24]. 3. Release of Brazilian Copper Mine Production Capacity - Overall Production Trend: In 2024, Brazil's copper mine production was 388,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 473,200 tons in 2027, showing an upward trend [26]. - Production of Major Mines: - Vale: Salobo copper mine's production is expected to increase steadily from 199,900 tons in 2024 to 250,000 tons from 2025 - 2027, and continue to rise after 2028. Sossego copper mine's average production from 2025 - 2027 is expected to be 60,000 - 70,000 tons per year, and about 50,000 tons per year after 2028 [2][29]. - Lundin Mining: Chapada copper mine's average production from 2025 - 2030 is expected to be about 42,000 tons [37]. - Ero Copper: Caraíba's production is expected to be 37,500 - 42,500 tons in 2025, 40,000 - 45,000 tons in 2026, and 45,000 - 50,000 tons in 2027. Tucumã's production is expected to be 37,500 - 42,500 tons in 2025, 45,000 - 50,000 tons in 2026, and decline to 40,000 - 45,000 tons in 2027 [2][42][43]. - Silver - colored: Serrote copper mine's copper concentrate production is stable at about 25,000 tons [2][54]. 4. Increase in Brazilian Copper Exports - Export Trend: Brazilian copper exports are on the rise, slightly higher than domestic production, indicating limited or no copper - smelting capacity in Brazil, and most of the copper concentrates are for export [3][46]. - Export Destinations: Brazil mainly exports copper to China and some European countries, with China being the largest export destination, accounting for 26% of total exports. From 2025 - 2027, Brazil's copper concentrate exports to China are estimated to increase by 6,500 tons, 10,400 tons, and 5,200 tons respectively [3][47].