有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to remain in a high - level and strong - side oscillation in the short term due to market uncertainties and supply - demand tensions, despite recent price corrections caused by factors such as the cease - fire in Gaza and the rise of the US dollar [1][2] - The copper market shows tight supply at the mine end and weakening terminal consumption. Copper prices may need to consolidate after reaching the pressure level, and a low - buying approach is recommended [5][7] - Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation until large - scale production cuts occur [14] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong along with aluminum prices, supported by cost factors [18][19] - Aluminum prices are likely to maintain an upward trend due to the influence of interest - rate cut expectations and the overall strength of the non - ferrous metal sector, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [26] - Zinc prices may be supported by overseas inventory reduction but could face downward pressure if there is large - scale LME warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but selling on rallies is advisable [29][30] - Lead prices may rise in the short term due to inventory reduction but could fall back later as supply is expected to increase while consumption shows no significant improvement [35][36] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range determined by supply surplus and cost support, following the rhythm of macro - sentiment [38][40] - Stainless steel prices are likely to oscillate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [43][45] - Industrial silicon prices may oscillate within a certain range. There may be a slight surplus in November, which could limit price increases [48][50] - Polysilicon prices may face downward pressure from supply - demand imbalances in October but could see price increases due to potential capacity integration. Low - buying after sufficient corrections is recommended [52] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern as both upward and downward driving forces are limited [56][58] - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the progress of mine resumption in Myanmar should be monitored [60][64] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 1.6% at $3976.28 per ounce, London silver closed up 0.66% at $49.205 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also showed corresponding price changes [1] - The US dollar index rose 0.63% to 99.538, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.144%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.14% to 7.1309 [1] Important资讯 - The US government is expected to release the CPI report during the shutdown. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement has taken effect, and the Congo (Kinshasa) central bank plans to build gold reserves [1] Logic Analysis - The cease - fire in Gaza led to profit - taking in gold, and the rise of the US dollar pressured precious metals. However, market uncertainties and supply - demand tensions in silver support precious metals to oscillate strongly at high levels [2] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, a low - buying approach is recommended. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. Buy deep - out - of - the - money call options on silver [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 86,650 yuan per ton, up 0.86%. LME copper closed at $10,776.5 per ton, up 0.71%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [5] Important资讯 - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Zambia plans to increase copper production, and some mines have production adjustments [5][6] Logic Analysis - Mine supply is tight, and terminal consumption is weak. The market expects copper prices to need consolidation after reaching the pressure level [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, buy on dips cautiously. Hold long - short arbitrage across markets and consider long - short arbitrage across periods after domestic inventory decline. Stay on the sidelines for options [7][8] Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [10][12] Important资讯 - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the winning price decreased. Alumina inventory increased, and there is a monthly supply surplus. Production costs and profits have changed [12][13] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply is increasing, resulting in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate at low levels until large - scale production cuts [14] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [15] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,550 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [18] Important资讯 - The SHFE aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [18] Logic Analysis - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost factors support the price of cast aluminum alloy [19] Trading Strategy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [20] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose 95 yuan to 21,100 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [22][25] Important资讯 - The US government is in a shutdown, and Fed officials have differences in interest - rate cut views. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased [25][26] Logic Analysis - Aluminum prices are rising due to interest - rate cut expectations and sector strength. Short - term inventory accumulation has limited impact on prices [26] Trading Strategy - Adopt a long - position approach for aluminum prices. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [27][28] Zinc Market Review - LME zinc rose 0.63% to $3,014 per ton, Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.61% to 22,335 yuan per ton. Spot market trading was mainly among traders [29] Important资讯 - Domestic zinc inventory increased, and a mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [29] Logic Analysis - Overseas inventory reduction supports zinc prices, but potential LME warehousing could lead to price drops [30] Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, but sell on rallies. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [31] Lead Market Review - LME lead rose 0.75% to $2,020.5 per ton, Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.44% to 17,115 yuan per ton. Spot market trading was light [34] Important资讯 - Lead inventory decreased, and a lead - zinc mine's production resumption was postponed [35] Logic Analysis - The lead market has tight raw - material supply, potential production changes at smelters, and weak consumption [35][36] Trading Strategy - Lead prices may rise and then fall. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the money call options [36][37] Nickel Market Review - LME nickel rose to $15,485 per ton, and Shanghai nickel rose to 123,620 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed some changes [38] Important资讯 - A nickel mine in Indonesia plans to start production, and Indonesia has introduced a new mining - license policy. There are export controls on lithium - battery - related products [38] Logic Analysis - Nickel prices are affected by factors such as inventory increase, export controls, and market sentiment, and are expected to oscillate within a range [38][40] Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [41] Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless - steel main contract rose to 12,845 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in a certain range [43] Important资讯 - India relaxed import - certification requirements, a typhoon affected some processing enterprises, and Indonesia won an anti - dumping lawsuit [43] Logic Analysis - Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [45] Trading Strategy - Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [46] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fell 0.29% to 8,640 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48] Important资讯 - The government issued a notice on price management. Some silicon plants had production adjustments [48] Logic Analysis - There may be a slight surplus in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [48][50] Trading Strategy - Trade within the range for single - side trading. Stay on the sidelines for options and arbitrage [50] Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures closed flat at 50,765 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [52] Important资讯 - The government issued a notice on price management. Polysilicon production and demand changed [52] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand imbalances in October may lead to price pressure, but capacity integration may push up prices. Buying at low levels after corrections is advisable [52] Trading Strategy - Buy after sufficient corrections for single - side trading. Hold reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [54] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate 2511 contract rose to 73,340 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [56] Important资讯 - A company obtained mining rights, there were export controls, and some lithium - related projects had developments [56] Logic Analysis - Production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to oscillate [58] Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [58] Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2511 contract rose 0.82% to 287,400 yuan per ton. Spot prices increased, but market activity was low [60] Important资讯 - Fed - related news, and Indonesia adjusted its tin - trading system and carried out industry governance [60][62] Logic Analysis - The supply of tin mines is tight, and demand is weak. Pay attention to mine resumption and consumption recovery [63] Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Monitor the resumption of mines in Myanmar [64]