SEALAND SECURITIES(SZ:000750) Guohai Securities·2025-10-11 12:34Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war escalation is a short - term external shock that may not change the underlying logic of bond market trading in the fourth quarter. The trading focus in the fourth quarter will still revolve around domestic policy variables, and the current external event mainly creates structural trading opportunities [5][16]. - The negative factors in the bond market have been digested by the market, and their impact is weakening. The bond market has shown signs of stabilizing from over - decline since mid - September [7][12]. - The bond market has many positive factors, such as the possibility of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, weak economic fundamentals, reduced supply pressure in the fourth quarter, slow implementation of policy tools, and the possibility of the central bank restarting treasury bond transactions [7][13]. - If the current tariff war escalation triggers market risk - aversion sentiment, it may reproduce trading opportunities similar to those in April this year [7][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Negative Factors - Multiple negative factors have dominated the bond market since July, but their impact has weakened as they have been digested by the market. By mid - September, the bond market showed signs of stabilizing from over - decline. This is reflected in the weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect, the current yield reaching the annual pressure upper limit, and the warming of bond market participants' sentiment [7][12]. 2. Positive Factors - There is room for the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to be repaired. There is still a possibility of reserve requirement ratio or interest rate cuts this year, and if the market expectation is repaired, it may form a positive for the bond market [14]. - The economic fundamentals are still weak, with low CPI growth and manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line, which provides support for the bond market [14]. - The supply pressure of the bond market in the fourth quarter may be relatively relieved, reducing the upward pressure on interest rates [14]. - The implementation of policy - based financial tools is slow, and the short - term impact on the bond market is limited [15]. - The central bank may restart treasury bond transactions due to the mention in relevant meetings and the potential maturity of some bonds [15]. 3. Bond Market Outlook - The tariff war escalation is an external shock. If it triggers market risk - aversion sentiment, it may lead to a decline in the 10 - year treasury bond yield similar to that in April this year, presenting trading opportunities [16]. - The tariff event is a short - term shock and may not change the fourth - quarter trading logic. The trading focus will still be on domestic policy variables, and the impact of policy adjustments may be the re - allocation of existing funds rather than a systematic contraction [5][16].