Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-12 00:39Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) fluctuated and declined. Except for EC2510, all other contracts saw varying degrees of decline. Short - term, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate with a downward trend, but the cease - fire process in Gaza may be repeated. Strategies can be relatively bearish or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full shipping space or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2]. - For those hoping to book space based on orders and worried about rising freight rates (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1500 - 1550 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The decline in today's futures price is due to the initial cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and the possibility of Maersk resuming Red Sea transportation, as well as China's counter - measures against the US port fee on Chinese ships. The rise of the 10 - contract is because Maersk issued a November price increase letter [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Lido Factor: Maersk will increase the FAK rates from major Asian ports to Rotterdam from November 3, with rates rising to $1625/TEU and $2500/FEU [4]. - Negative Factors: Maersk may resume Red Sea transportation; China will collect special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, with the fee increasing in stages [3][5]. EC Price and Related Data - EC Basis: On October 11, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was - 74.60, with a daily decline of 1.20 and a weekly decline of 156.52. Other contracts also had different basis changes [7]. - EC Closing Price and Spread: On October 11, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1121.1, up 0.11% daily and down 4.42% weekly. Different contract spreads also had corresponding changes [7]. Shipping Price and Index - Container Spot Quotes: Maersk's container quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed an upward trend in different departure dates in October [9]. - Global Freight Index: The SCFIS European route decreased by 6.60%, the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 4.82%, while the SCFI European route increased by 9.99%, and other indices had different changes [10]. Port Waiting Time - On October 10, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.656 days compared to the previous day, while Shanghai Port increased by 0.305 days. Other ports also had different waiting time changes [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On October 10, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships decreased by 0.013 compared to the previous day, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor increased by 6 [22].