Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-12 00:57Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Analyst: Zhou Fuhan (Investment Consulting License No. Z0020173) - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are under marginal pressure, with high shipments, inventory accumulating above the seasonal level. Although downstream hot metal production provides support, steel demand is weak, inventories are piling up, and profits are declining, leading to the accumulation of industrial chain contradictions. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, remaining in a range - bound oscillation. The short - term rhythm depends on whether macro expectations can support the upward valuation; otherwise, it's difficult for the price to have a trending upward movement [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Forecast and Strategy - Price Forecast: The price forecast range for the iron ore 11 - contract in October is 780 - 850, with the current at - the - money option IV at 19.14% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For those with current iron ore inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies include directly short - selling iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in profits with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 840 - 850, and selling call options (I2511 - C - 850) to collect premiums with a 30% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. - Procurement Management: For those planning to purchase iron ore in the future and worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are directly going long on iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in costs with a 30% hedging ratio at an entry range of 780 - 790, and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790). If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions with a 40% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Iron Ore Prices - Likely Positive Factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and is expected to cut twice more this year, leading to loose global financial conditions and an expected upward movement of the global manufacturing PMI. Hot metal production remains at a high level, and there are short - term supply disruptions [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: Despite high hot metal production, steel inventories are still high, putting pressure on the fundamentals. Although rebar production cuts have relieved inventory pressure, the transfer of hot metal to hot - rolled coil production has led to above - seasonal inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils. Iron ore shipments have increased, with non - mainstream shipments at a seasonal high, and global iron ore shipments have turned from a cumulative year - on - year negative to positive. After pre - holiday steel mill restocking, port iron ore inventories have started to accumulate above the seasonal level. Macro - level positive news has been fully digested, and the anti - involution trend in the industrial sector has not continued. Steel mill profits continue to be under pressure [4][5]. 3.3 Iron Ore Price Data - Futures Contract Closing Prices: On October 10, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 795, 774.5, and 753 respectively, with daily changes of 4.5, 3.5, and 2.5, and weekly changes of - 10.5, - 11, and - 12 [4]. - Basis: The 01, 05, and 09 basis on October 10, 2025, were - 6, 14.5, and 36 respectively, with daily changes of 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5, and weekly changes of 4.5, - 1, and 1.5 [4][6]. - Spot Prices: On October 10, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special fines were 788, 923, and 715 respectively [6]. - Platts Index: On October 10, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 95.85, 107.4, and 121.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.3, 1.55, and 1.8, and weekly changes of 1.85, 3.3, and 3.55 [7]. 3.4 Iron Ore Fundamental Data - Production and Consumption - related Data: As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 241.54, with a weekly change of - 0.27 and a monthly change of 0.99. The 45 - port ore removal volume was 327, with a weekly change of - 9.4 and a monthly change of 9.22. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 751, with a weekly change of - 153 and a monthly change of - 92 [13]. - Shipment and Arrival Data: The global shipment volume was 3279, with a weekly change of - 196.4 and a monthly change of 522.8. The Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2727.4, with a weekly change of - 39.6 and a monthly change of 460.4. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2608.7, with a weekly change of 248.2 and a monthly change of 160.7 [13]. - Inventory Data: The 45 - port inventory was 14024.5, with a weekly change of 24.22 and a monthly change of 199.18. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.19, with a weekly change of - 990.6 and a monthly change of 53.14. The available days for 247 steel mills were 30.24, with a weekly change of - 3.35 and a monthly change of - 0.08 [13].