CMES(SH:601872) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-12 06:13Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the shipping and port industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3][18]. Core Insights - The Chinese government has announced a special port fee for U.S. vessels starting from October 14, 2025, as a countermeasure against the U.S. 301 tariff investigation [3][4]. - The fee structure is phased, starting at 400 RMB per net ton in 2025 and increasing to 1120 RMB by 2028, which could significantly impact shipping costs and operational decisions for affected vessels [3][10]. - The limited number of U.S. flagged and built vessels (6445 ships totaling 52.87 million deadweight tons, representing 1.9% of the global fleet) suggests that the impact may be concentrated but significant for certain shipping companies [5][9]. - The report highlights potential beneficiaries in the shipping sector, particularly Chinese shipbuilders and operators, if exemptions are granted for vessels with U.S. investments [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview of the Port Fee - The special port fee targets U.S. owned or operated vessels, including those with significant U.S. ownership [3][5]. - The fee will be charged per voyage, with a cap of five voyages per year for each vessel [10]. Section 2: Impact on Shipping Capacity - The report notes that the U.S. shipping capacity is limited, which may create historical opportunities for Chinese shipping companies [3][4]. - The operational challenges posed by the new fees could lead to increased freight rates due to reduced available shipping capacity and efficiency losses [3][10]. Section 3: Price Impact Analysis - The initial fee levels are expected to be significantly higher than current freight rates, making it difficult for affected vessels to absorb these costs [10]. - Short-term disruptions may lead to non-linear increases in freight rates, particularly for oil and bulk shipping [3][10]. Section 4: Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including China Merchants Energy Shipping, China Shipbuilding Industry, and others in the shipbuilding sector [3][18].