Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-12 06:46Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Coal and Coke Weekly View [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke may continue weak and volatile due to repeated macro - expectations [3] - After pre - holiday restocking, post - holiday demand is weak and trading atmosphere is cold [4] - The fundamentals of coal and coke show a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively small marginal contradictions, and the current disk valuation may be dominated by macro factors [5] Group 4: Coal and Coke Fundamentals Data Supply - For coal, FW raw coal is 836.67 (- 39.93), FW clean coal is 426.31 (- 25.64); for coke, independent coking plants' daily average is 66.12 (+ 0.04), and steel mills' coking plants' daily average is 46.38 (- 0.16) [7] Demand - Iron and steel water production is 241.54 (- 0.27) for both coal and coke [7] Inventory - MS total inventory for coal is - 78.8, with various changes in different sectors; for coke, MS total inventory is - 10.1, independent coking + 1.5 [7] Profit - Commodity coal profit is 466 (+ 14), and coking enterprises' average profit is 9 (+ 45) [7] Warehouse Receipt - Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1176, and Rizhao standard first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1568 [7] Group 5: Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - Weekly and monthly production data are presented in multiple charts, including 523 sample mine production rates, FW raw coal and clean coal production, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume [10][14][16] Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, sample mine raw coal inventory increased by 2.72 tons to 165.05 tons, and clean coal inventory increased by 6.48 tons to 111.16 tons [27] - Port inventory: This week, coking coal port inventory is 294.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.8 tons [29] - Coking plant inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented in different regions and production capacities [32][34][36] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented for 247 steel enterprises and in different regions [37] Group 6: Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including different production capacity levels and regions [40][42] - Production: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including daily average production [44][46] Inventory - Coking plant inventory: Data of full - sample and 230 independent coking plants are presented [48] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory, available days, and regional breakdown are presented [49][51][52] - Total inventory: Coke total inventory data are presented [54] Demand - Iron production data are provided, and the supply - demand difference is analyzed [56][57] Profit - Coke profit data, including disk profit and average profit of independent coking enterprises, are presented [58][59][60] Group 7: Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Futures - Coking coal futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [63] - Coke futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [65] Month - spread - Month - spread data of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [68] Spot - Spot price data of coking coal and coke are presented [71] Basis - The coking coal spot has a premium over the 01 contract, and basis data are presented [74][75][76]