CMES(SH:601872) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-12 07:14Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Overweight" for the shipping and port industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [16]. Core Insights - The report discusses China's implementation of special port fees for U.S. vessels as a countermeasure to the U.S. 301 tariff investigation, which is expected to create opportunities in the shipping sector [3][4]. - The special port fees will be charged based on net tonnage, starting at 400 RMB per net ton in October 2025 and increasing to 1120 RMB by April 2028 [10][11]. - The impact on shipping capacity is significant, as the number of affected U.S. vessels is limited, totaling 6445 ships with a combined deadweight tonnage of 52.87 million, representing 1.9% of the global fleet [5][6]. - The report highlights potential price increases in shipping rates due to the high costs of the new fees, which may not be offset by freight rates [10][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: China's Countermeasures - On October 10, the Ministry of Transport announced the collection of special port fees for U.S. vessels starting October 14, 2025, targeting various categories of U.S.-owned or operated ships [3][4]. - The short implementation window may lead to operational challenges for vessels already en route to China, potentially causing disputes and inefficiencies in the market [4][5]. Section 2: Fee Structure - The fee structure is phased, with the initial charge set at 400 RMB per net ton, increasing to 640 RMB, 880 RMB, and finally 1120 RMB over the next few years [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that the fees are significantly higher than current freight rates, making it difficult for affected vessels to absorb these costs [10][12]. Section 3: Impact on Shipping Companies - The report identifies key shipping companies that may be affected, including those with significant U.S. ownership or operations, such as Star Bulk and Intl Seaways [7][8]. - It notes that the operational adjustments required to mitigate the impact of these fees could lead to inefficiencies and increased freight rates in the market [9][10]. Section 4: Comparison with U.S. 301 Tariff - The report compares the Chinese port fees with the U.S. 301 tariff measures, highlighting the potential for both sides to impact shipping operations significantly [12][14]. - It mentions that major shipping companies are already planning to adjust their global capacity to avoid additional costs associated with the U.S. tariffs [12].