BOCIC(SH:601696) Bank of China Securities·2025-10-12 23:53Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asset price recovery and systematic inflation restoration are conditions for the continuous rise of long - term yields. In the scenario of the A - share market transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2]. - On October 10, Trump issued a new tariff threat with an intended effective date of November 1. If China and the US can manage their differences quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and the impact of new tariffs on US Treasury bonds may be less than that of the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - The outcome of the US government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. If Democrats in Congress compromise, it is positive for US Treasury bonds; otherwise, it is negative. The US economic growth highly depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may cause economic stagnation. The US debt market also faces the uncertainty of the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariff policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Scanning - Bond Yields and Asset Prices: Low interest rates are usually due to low financing demand. Low interest rates and low asset valuations are interrelated. In Japan, when major inflation indicators fluctuated around 0, short - term interest rates bottomed out. Long - term yields are closely related to asset prices. After short - term rates bottomed out in the 1990s, long - term yields continued to decline during the housing price downturn. Only recently, with the joint increase in housing and stock prices, have Japanese long - term interest rates risen. In the scenario of A - shares transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2][11][12]. - US Tariff Threat: On October 10, Trump issued a tariff threat scheduled to take effect on November 1. If differences are managed quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and new tariffs may have less impact on US Treasury bonds. The outcome of the government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. US economic growth depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may lead to economic stagnation. The US debt market faces uncertainty from the US Supreme Court's tariff policy ruling [2][13][17]. - Production Data: In the week of October 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.66% week - on - week and 25.02% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.60% week - on - week on September 26. The production data price index remained flat week - on - week on September 26 [2][21]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report provides multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production data price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [26][28]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents charts on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for interest rate hikes or cuts [99][101][108]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, including the seasonal trends of indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal) and the production data price index [110]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides charts on the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167][173].