中银量化多策略行业轮动周报-20251013

Group 1: Core Insights - The current allocation of the Bank of China multi-strategy industry configuration system includes Non-Bank Financials (11.6%), Basic Chemicals (8.7%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (7.8%), and others [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries is 1.4%, with the best-performing sectors being Non-Ferrous Metals (11.0%), Defense Industry (4.3%), and Steel (4.1%) [3][10] - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 2.5% this week, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 0.9% [3] Group 2: Industry Performance Review - The worst-performing sectors this week include Consumer Services (-1.8%), Communication (-1.6%), and Media (-1.0%) [10] - Year-to-date, the composite strategy has gained 27.8%, while the benchmark has returned 24.1%, resulting in an excess return of 3.8% [3] - The highest excess return among individual strategies this year is from the Traditional Multi-Factor Scoring Strategy (15.0%) [3] Group 3: Valuation Risk Warning - The current PB valuation for sectors such as Retail, Media, Computers, Electronics, Automotive, Defense Industry, and Non-Ferrous Metals exceeds the 95th percentile of their historical PB valuations, triggering a high valuation warning [12][13] Group 4: Strategy Rankings and Performance - The top three industries based on the High Prosperity Industry Rotation Strategy are Non-Bank Financials, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, and Communication [15] - The top three industries based on the Implied Sentiment Momentum Strategy are Machinery, Electric Power Equipment and New Energy, and Non-Ferrous Metals [19] - The current macro indicators favor the following six industries: Banking, Oil and Petrochemicals, Transportation, Electric Power and Public Utilities, Construction, and Home Appliances [23]