Freeport-McMoRan(US:FCX) Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-13 02:38Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the copper price rose and then fell due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose high tariffs on China again, which caused market panic. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed a large divergence between hawks and doves on the pace of interest rate cuts this year. The US government shutdown may delay important inflation and employment data, affecting the Fed's decision on future interest rate cut paths. These factors dampened market risk appetite, causing the London copper price to be blocked after rising to $11,000. On the fundamental side, Teck Resources significantly lowered its production forecasts for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project, intensifying concerns about global mine - end supply. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline, social inventories are running at a low level, and the near - month futures market maintains a flat - water structure. Overall, although the supply shortage disturbances at overseas resource ends continue to heat up, Sino - US trade frictions reappeared last week, and the Fed's hawks and doves have differences on the interest rate cut rhythm. In the context of the spread of overseas macro - panic sentiment, the copper price is expected to enter a shock adjustment in the short term [2][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Price Changes: From September 26th to October 10th, LME copper rose from $10,205/ton to $10,374/ton, an increase of $169 or 1.66%; COMEX copper rose from 476.45 cents/pound to 484.5 cents/pound, an increase of 8.05 cents or 1.69%; SHFE copper rose from 82,470 yuan/ton to 85,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,440 yuan or 4.17%; international copper rose from 72,870 yuan/ton to 73,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,010 yuan or 1.39%. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.08 to 8.28, an increase of 0.2. The LME spot premium/discount rose from -$33.91/ton to -$31.19/ton, an increase of $2.72 or - 8.02%. The Shanghai spot premium/discount rose from - 5 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [4]. - Inventory Changes: From September 26th to October 10th, LME inventory decreased from 144,400 tons to 139,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 3.46%; COMEX inventory increased from 322,284 short tons to 339,525 short tons, an increase of 17,241 short tons or 5.35%; SHFE inventory increased from 98,761 tons to 109,672 tons, an increase of 10,911 tons or 11.05%; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased from 76,300 tons to 88,000 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons or 15.33%. The total inventory increased from 641,745 tons to 676,597 tons, an increase of 34,852 tons or 5.43% [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Fluctuation Reasons: The rise and fall of the copper price last week were mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions and the Fed's internal differences on interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China and the possible delay of important economic data due to the US government shutdown dampened market risk appetite. On the fundamental side, the extension of the shutdown of Teck Resources' QB project and production problems in other mines intensified concerns about global mine - end supply [2][8]. - Inventory Situation: As of September 26th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 641,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,200 tons, the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased to 7.15%; SHFE inventory decreased by 7,000 tons; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The rebound of the Shanghai - London ratio last week was mainly due to the Fed's overall interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, which boosted the US dollar index to rise from a low level [8]. - Macro Situation: Trump's threat to impose tariffs on China and export controls on key software hit market risk appetite, causing a sharp decline in overseas financial market prices. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed differences among officials on the rate and frequency of interest rate cuts. The continued shutdown of the US government may make the Fed lose economic data as a policy reference. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, indicating that manufacturing production activities are accelerating and market demand is improving [9]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Teck Resources lowered its production guidance for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project. Panama's copper mine has no hope of resuming production this year, and some mines in Indonesia and Chile are also facing production declines. Global refined copper production is expected to decline slightly in October due to the shortage of overseas ore supply and the new waste copper policy. In terms of demand, the construction progress of power grid investment projects has been postponed, the start - up rate of copper cable production is lower than usual, but the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries show certain demand [10]. Industry News - Chilean Copper Mines: Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% due to a fatal collapse accident at the El Teniente copper mine. The Escondida copper mine's production was basically stable, while the Collahuasi copper mine's production decreased by 27% due to lower ore grades [12]. - Teck Resources: Due to the extended shutdown of the QB project to raise the tailings dam height, Teck Resources lowered its 2025 production guidance from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons and its 2026 production forecast from 280,000 - 310,000 tons to 200,000 - 235,000 tons. The net cash unit cost in 2025 is expected to be between $2.65 - $3.00 per pound, higher than the previous forecast [13]. - Freeport - McMoRan: The company found the remains of all 7 missing workers at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia after a mudslide. The mine is expected to fully resume operations in 2027, and some unaffected areas may restart production later this year. The company has declared force majeure on its Indonesian freight and lowered its production forecasts for this year and next [14].