Orient Securities(SH:600958) Orient Securities·2025-10-13 06:13Research Conclusion - The adjustment of the bond market in the third quarter was mainly due to two reasons: the repair of deflation expectations and regulatory policy changes. The negative impact of these two factors on the bond market will weaken in the fourth quarter [3][8]. - The bond market will "turn the corner" in the fourth quarter, but it won't happen overnight. The repair speed and rhythm in the fourth quarter are difficult to replicate those in April. The repair amplitude won't be large, and it's a relatively slow interest - rate peak - building process. The catalysts for the accelerated decline of interest rates are the relaxation of regulatory policies and the intensification of monetary policies [5][8][13]. - In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to try to slightly go long on bonds in the short term but in a cautious way. Currently, bond market investment opportunities are still in the form of bands, not trend - based long opportunities. The short - end is more stable than the long - end, and credit is more stable than interest rates. The short - duration and high - liquidity strategy of credit bonds has higher certainty [5][17]. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market Attention to September Data - China will release September's social financing, export, and inflation data, and the US will release September's PPI [18]. Seasonal Increase in Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds will increase seasonally but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with an expected total issuance of 443.3 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of national bonds is around 261 billion yuan, local bonds is 32.3 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds is about 150 billion yuan [19][22][23]. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds Net Withdrawal in Open - Market Operations at the Beginning of the Quarter - At the beginning of the quarter, a large number of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a significant net withdrawal in open - market operations. After the cross - quarter period, the central bank maintained a high - level reverse - repurchase injection, with a net injection of 114 billion yuan. However, due to a large number of maturities, the final net withdrawal was 153 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds rate seasonally declined at the beginning of the quarter. The trading volume of repurchase rose to over 750 billion yuan, and the overnight proportion fluctuated around 73% on average. In terms of price, the inter - bank funds rate significantly declined compared to the end of the previous quarter. The issuance volume of certificates of deposit increased, and most prices declined [24][26][31]. Recovery of Bond - Market Sentiment at the Beginning of the Quarter - At the end of the previous quarter, the market's expectation of the central bank's injection was unstable, and the liability - side stability of asset - management products was weak, leading to a strong willingness to realize profits, and ultimately a large increase in interest rates. After the holiday, the market sentiment marginally recovered, the funds rate declined, and the expectation of the central bank's loose monetary policy resurfaced, causing bond - market interest rates to return to a downward trend. On the 11th, Trump's tariff policy caused fluctuations again, driving interest rates down rapidly. Finally, the yields of the 10 - year treasury bond and the active state - development bond decreased by 4bp and 3.65bp respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.74% and 1.93%. The yields of interest - rate bonds with various maturities mainly declined [45]. High - Frequency Data Production - Side - The operating rates were divided. The blast - furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.3%, the semi - steel tire operating rate seasonally declined from 73.6% to 55.3%, and the PTA operating rate changed from 77.5% to 77.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude - steel output in early September turned negative, reaching - 8.6% [54]. Demand - Side - The year - on - year growth rates of the wholesale and retail sales of passenger - car manufacturers significantly improved. In the week of September 30th, the year - on - year growth rates of the wholesale and retail sales of passenger - car manufacturers were 57% and 43% respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial - housing transaction area turned positive. In the week of October 5th, the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, the land transaction area decreased, and the year - on - year growth rate turned positive. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally declined, but the year - on - year growth rate rapidly rose to a high of 58%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indexes changed by 4.1% and - 6.7% respectively [54]. Price - Side - Considering the price changes on October 11th compared to the end of the quarter (September 30th), the crude - oil price declined, the copper and aluminum prices increased, and the settlement price of the active coking - coal futures contract increased. In the mid - stream, the comprehensive building - materials price index slightly declined, and both the cement and glass indexes decreased. The output of rebar decreased, and inventory started to accumulate again. The futures price increased by 0.6% after the holiday. In the downstream consumer sector, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.2%, 2.3%, and - 2.8% respectively [55].