Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:52Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term market trends follow the macro situation. If Sino - US relations ease, the valuation will rise; if the negotiations fluctuate, the price will correct. The iron ore fundamentals are under marginal pressure, with neutral - to - high shipments, inventory accumulating above the seasonal level. Downstream hot metal production is supported, but steel demand is weak, inventory is piling up, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, oscillating within a range [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The price forecast range for the iron ore 11 - contract in October is 780 - 850, with the current at - the - money option IV at 19.69% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For those with current iron ore inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), strategies include directly short - selling iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in profits with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 840 - 850, and selling call options (I2511 - C - 850) to collect premiums with a 30% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. Procurement Management - For those planning to purchase iron ore in the future and worried about price increases (short risk exposure), strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures (I2511) to lock in costs with a 30% hedging ratio at an entry range of 780 - 790, and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790). If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions with a 40% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. Factors Affecting Prices Positive Factors - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and is expected to cut twice more this year, leading to loose global financial conditions and an expected upward movement of the global manufacturing PMI. Hot metal production remains at a high level. There are short - term supply disruptions, and the "Trump TACO" factor [4]. Negative Factors - With high hot metal production, steel inventory remains high, putting pressure on the fundamentals. Although rebar production cuts have relieved inventory pressure, hot metal is being redirected to hot - rolled coil production, causing hot - rolled coil inventory to accumulate above the seasonal level. Iron ore shipments are increasing, with non - mainstream shipments at a seasonal high, and global iron ore shipments have turned from a cumulative year - on - year negative to positive. After pre - holiday steel mill restocking, port iron ore inventory has started to accumulate above the seasonal level. Macro - level positive factors have been fully priced in, and the anti - involution trend in the industrial sector has not continued [5]. Price Data Futures Closing Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 respectively, with daily changes of 9.5, 6.5, and 6, and weekly changes of 14.5, 11.5, and 8.5 [5]. Basis - On October 13, 2025, the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 16.5, 7, and 29 respectively, with daily changes of - 9.5, - 8.5, and - 8, and weekly changes of - 11.5, - 8.5, and - 6 [5][6]. Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special fines were 788, 923, and 714 respectively, with daily changes of - 2 for all and weekly changes of 10, 6, and 9 [6]. Platts Index - On October 10, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 95.85, 107.4, and 121.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.3, 1.55, and 1.8, and weekly changes of 1.85, 3.3, and 3.55 [7]. Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54, with a weekly change of - 0.27 and a monthly change of 0.99. The 45 - port desilting volume was 327, with a weekly change of - 9.4 and a monthly change of 9.22. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 751, with a weekly change of - 153 and a monthly change of - 92. The global shipment volume was 3207.5, with a weekly change of - 71.5 and a monthly change of - 365.6. The Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2666.5, with a weekly change of - 60.9 and a monthly change of - 184.3. The 45 - port arrival volume was 3045.8, with a weekly change of 437.1 and a monthly change of 683.5. The 45 - port inventory was 14024.5, with a weekly change of 24.22 and a monthly change of 199.18. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.19, with a weekly change of - 990.6 and a monthly change of 53.14. The available days for 247 steel mills were 30.24, with a weekly change of - 3.35 and a monthly change of - 0.08 [14].