Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:51Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday decline of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was mainly affected by the broader market, and the fundamental logic temporarily failed. The quota for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2026, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with strong downstream demand. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum, and stainless steel may be weak due to profit pressure and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and macro - level attention should be paid to the subsequent development of Sino - US tariffs [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.78% and a historical percentile of 2.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - Inventory management: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [2]. - Procurement management: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [2]. Stainless Steel - Inventory management: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [3]. - Procurement management: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month stainless steel contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [3]. Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel declined due to the broader market. Nickel ore quota in Indonesia may decrease in 2026. The new energy sector is in a peak season with high demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel has profit and demand issues. There are export利好 factors for stainless steel, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs [3]. Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period, changes in mining area management, progress in nickel smelting projects, favorable WTO rulings, and extension of Indian BIS certification exemption [5]. Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak stainless steel demand [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - Nickel: The prices of Shanghai Nickel main contract and related contracts, as well as LME nickel 3M, all declined, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing, while the position of warehouse receipts increased slightly [5]. - Stainless steel: The prices of stainless steel contracts declined, but trading volume and open interest increased significantly, and the position of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 43,694 tons, an increase of 2,866 tons; LME nickel inventory is 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 905.6 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,236 tons, an increase of 584 tons [7].