BYD(SZ:002594) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-13 12:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing robust growth, with production and sales figures for July-August 2025 showing increases of 13.1% and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Domestic brands are leading the market, capturing a retail share of 66.2%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while new energy vehicles (NEVs) continue to see significant growth [3]. - The average industry discount rate has decreased, indicating reduced terminal concessions [3]. - Raw material prices for traditional and new energy vehicles have risen, impacting supply chain profitability [3]. - Profitability among automakers varies significantly, with some companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng showing substantial profit growth, while others like BYD and Li Auto are facing declines [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In July-August 2025, total automotive production and sales reached 5.406 million and 5.45 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 13.1% and 15.6% [3]. - Passenger vehicle production and sales were 4.793 million and 4.827 million units, reflecting increases of 12.7% and 15.6% year-on-year [3]. - Commercial vehicle sales reached 613,000 and 622,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 16.3% and 15.2% [3]. - Exports totaled 1.313 million units, up 34.0% year-on-year, with NEV exports alone reaching 449,000 units, a remarkable increase of 110.8% [3]. Market Share - Domestic brands accounted for 66.2% of retail sales in July-August 2025, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while joint venture brands remained stable and luxury brands saw a decline of 13.6% [3]. - NEV wholesale figures reached 2.471 million units, up 23.7% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 66.2% for domestic brands in August [3]. Pricing and Costs - The average industry discount rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 13.73% in Q3 2025, with variations among brand categories [3]. - Prices for traditional raw materials such as steel, aluminum, and rubber increased, while battery materials like nickel and lithium also saw price fluctuations [3]. Company Performance - Profit growth among automakers varied significantly, with Leap Motor (+142% to +144%) and Xpeng (+91% to +92%) leading, while BYD (-21% to -16%) and Li Auto (-95% to -91%) faced declines [4]. - Component manufacturers also showed strong profit growth, with companies like Jingwei Hirain (+146% to +150%) and Jifeng (+120% to +121%) performing well [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in strong domestic manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xpeng, as well as companies involved in smart technology and central enterprise reforms [3].