NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-13 13:27Report Title - Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [2] Research Team - Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team, including Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, and Zhang Lei [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Concerns about potential additional tariffs between China and the US may put pressure on aluminum prices. Different segments of the aluminum industry (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys) face various supply - demand situations and price trends. Due to factors such as Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Sino - US trade conflicts, prices in these segments are expected to fluctuate widely. Appropriate investment strategies are proposed for each segment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - Supply - side factors: The commissioning of domestic and overseas projects may increase alumina production in October. For example, the first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, and the Yangjiagou bauxite mine of Lvliang Mining (annual capacity of 600,000 tons) was put into operation at the end of August. Overseas, the third - phase 1,000,000 - ton alumina project of Nanshan Aluminum in Indonesia started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025 [3] - Price and investment strategy: Domestic alumina production is in the red, and the supply - demand outlook is loose, making the price likely to fall rather than rise. Investors are advised to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 [3] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply - side factors: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in October. Projects like the second - phase energy - saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai's 50,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity started to restart, and overseas projects such as Huatong Cable's 120,000 - ton project in Angola may increase imports [4] - Demand - side factors: The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased last week, except for the possible increase in the production of remelted rods (aluminum poles) in October [4] - Price and investment strategy: With the rising expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut and the increasing proportion of molten aluminum production, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices, paying attention to support and resistance levels for both Shanghai and London aluminum [5] 3.3 Aluminum Alloys - Supply - side factors: The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may decrease in October. Although the production of domestic scrap aluminum may increase, the import may decrease due to overseas competition and geopolitical issues. Projects like Yongchun Qingyuan Metal's and Guizhou Guangyu Aluminum's are put into production, but overall production is expected to decline [6] - Price and investment strategy: Given the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the tight supply - demand outlook for domestic scrap aluminum, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys lightly, paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [6]