新能源金属供应端政策不明朗，现实供需暂主导盘面

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Expected to fluctuate in the short term, with potential downward pressure due to oversupply [6][7] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate under pressure, with prices potentially continuing to decline if policy expectations fade [7][9] - Lithium carbonate: Expected to trade sideways in the short term, with long - term oversupply and supply recovery expectations weighing on prices [11] 2. Core Viewpoints - The policy on the supply side of new energy metals is unclear, and the current supply - demand situation is temporarily driving the market. In the medium - short term, due to the fluctuating supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to wait for the supply - side policy to become clear. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center, while the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] 3. Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Monitor the resumption rhythm in the northwest, and the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6] - Information Analysis: As of September 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In August, the export volume was 76,642 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The cumulative export from January to August was 491,353 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The latest domestic inventory was 442,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [6] - Main Logic: Before the holiday, the resumption progress of large factories in the northwest slowed down, and the fluctuating coal prices affected the cost support. In October, the supply was still relatively loose, and the demand improved slightly month - on - month [6] Polysilicon - Viewpoint: The current supply - demand situation is poor, and the polysilicon price is under pressure and fluctuating [7] - Information Analysis: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. In August, the export volume was about 2,992 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 16,517 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.3%. The import volume in August was about 1,005.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.81%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 13,385 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.59% [7] - Main Logic: From August to September, the production of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and high production is expected to continue in October. The demand for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year is expected to decline, and the demand for polysilicon may weaken further [8][9] Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: With strong supply and demand, the price will trade sideways [10] - Information Analysis: On October 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 0.63% to 72,280 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 839 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [10] - Main Logic: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, but there is still an expectation of oversupply after the peak season. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October, and the apparent demand in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month to 114,000 tons. The social inventory is still relatively high [11]