HONGLU(SZ:002541) Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-14 02:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company has seen a slight increase in new orders and processing volume in Q3, with a total of 22.267 billion yuan in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.56%. In Q3 2025 alone, new orders amounted to 7.887 billion yuan, up 4.19% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in actual processing volume corresponding to orders, with a projected processing volume of 1.72 million tons for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [2]. - The steel supply-side reform is anticipated to enhance the company's earnings elasticity, as improved steel prices could lead to accelerated order releases and better accounting profit margins [3]. - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation and has established a dedicated R&D team for smart manufacturing, which is expected to contribute additional profits in the coming years [4]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In Q3 2025, the company secured 27 contracts exceeding 10,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year increase in large orders. The main project types include renewable energy, internet, and data centers [2]. - The average price of new orders in Q3 2025 was between 4,584 and 8,512 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase from the previous year [2]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 23.539 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.60%. However, a decline of 8.60% is expected in 2024 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.179 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight increase to 811.5 million yuan in 2025 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 14, and 12 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 13.124 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.43 [7].