CHINA PET FOODS(SZ:002891) EBSCN·2025-10-14 06:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 320 million yuan, reflecting a 33.5% increase year-on-year [5][6] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.6% year-on-year to 130 million yuan, primarily due to reduced investment income [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 30.54%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to optimization in business and product structure [6] - The sales expense ratio for the first three quarters was 11.97%, up 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased promotional spending for domestic and overseas brands [6] - The management expense ratio increased to 5.49%, up 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, driven by employee stock plan expenses and rising employee compensation [6] - Investment income accounted for 0.68% of total income in the first three quarters, down 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant decline in Q3 due to reduced equity investment returns [6] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 9.32%, down 0.16 percentage points year-on-year [6] Strategic Developments - The company is transitioning from an OEM leader to a brand-focused enterprise, emphasizing its own brands and core grain products. The core brand "Wangpi" is shifting from a multi-SKU model to a big single product strategy, focusing on the "Little Golden Shield" series to drive domestic business growth [7] - The company has completed the construction of production lines in Mexico and Canada, enhancing its capacity in the North American free trade zone, which will help mitigate trade risks and ensure stable supply to core markets [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to 441 million yuan, 545 million yuan, and 668 million yuan respectively, reflecting a 4% reduction for each year. The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 1.45 yuan, 1.79 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [8][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 39x for 2025, 32x for 2026, and 26x for 2027, indicating a high level of industry attractiveness and the company's unique ability to withstand trade risks [8]